CHANGING PATTERN OF GAMBIA’S POPULATION DISTRIBUTION 1963 TO 2013

ABSTRACT

The stresses of climate change and explosive state of demographic transition in developing countries like the Gambia have led to the transformation of their economic activities which initiated redistributive tendencies in their spatial patterns of employment opportunities. As a result, the spatial distributional pattern of population in these countries is also undergoing changes. Analysis of these changes is useful for administrative and socio economic planning in addressing issues like determining the electoral constituencies, the provision of education, health and other social facilities,  waste disposal and management, and more importantly for devising coping strategies for the adverse effects of climate change on fragile ecosystems and vulnerable groups. It is in this context that this paper looks at the changes that have taken place in the distribution of Gambia’s population from 1963 to 2013 based on data of the six censuses conducted during the period. Although the first country wide census in The Gambia took place as early as 1881, it was from 1963 that censuses of good quality have been conducted on defacto basis. Therefore, 1963 census data serve as the reference point for analysis of the Gambia’s population characteristics. 

KEY WORDS: The Gambia, spatial, distributional pattern, change, analysis, census, data

INTRODUCTION

 One of the most important uses of the population census data is the information it provides about the population settlement pattern in a geographic area. It is pertinent, therefore,  to examine the changes in the pattern of spatial distribution of the Gambia’s population as revealed by the data of the six censuses that took place from 1963 to 2013 using the administrative region of a local government area (LGA) as the unit of analysis. 

The concept of distribution of a population refers to the spatial pattern in which the population finds its location. Thus, the concern of spatial distribution is the pattern of spread which may be linear, dispersed, nucleated, or agglomerated among others. There are several methods of describing the spatial distribution of a population; among them the percentage distribution is the simplest which indicates the percentage of a population in a given class of geographical area. The other simple method is the rank order in which the geographical areas of a given class are listed in a rank for a census year to enable comparison between different census years in order to reveal the trend of population growth overtime. Besides, the median point, the mean point (the centre of population), the point of minimum aggregate travel, and the point of maximum population potential are used by population geographers to measure population distribution. However, in this analysis the simple methods of percentage distribution and rank order are used to examine the change in the Gambia’s population distribution from 1963 to 2013. In addition, Lorenz curve is used to compare the country’s population distribution patterns for 1963 and 2013

Physical Features and Administrative Divisions

Situated between latitudes 13⁰N and 14⁰N, and between longitudes 14⁰W and 17⁰W on the bulge of the western coast of Africa along the Atlantic Ocean, with a total area of 11, 420 km2 and occupying a land area of 10, 690km2 (Jaiteh & Saho, 2006), the Gambia is the smallest country on mainland Africa. The country is surrounded by Senegal, its only neighbor, on all sides except the west which opens into the Atlantic Ocean. 

The climate of the country is conditioned by its tropical latitude and the seasonal migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) – the line of low pressure at which the hot dry continental northeast wind from the Sahara meets the moist oceanic southwest wind to produce precipitation. Hence, the climate is characterized by a distinct dry season between November and May when the position of the ITCZ shifts towards the coast and the northeast trade winds, locally referred to as Harmattan, became dominant; and a wet season from June to October when the low pressure centre migrates to the interior thereby bringing the area under the influence of the southwest monsoons from the Atlantic. The influence of the Cool Canary Currents in this part of the Atlantic modified the coastal climate to a sub – tropical type which makes the climate of the area more conducive than the interior of the country which has a typical tropical climate of the Sudanic type.

Map 1: Elevation Map of the Gambia Adapted From Jaiteh & Sarr 2011

The River Gambia, after which the country is named, dominates the topography (see map 1) as it flows through the entire length of the country in east – west direction and its floodplains which are flanked by low laterite hills form the width of the country which is about 48km along the coast and 24km in the interior. Hence, the country is generally flat with more than 48% of the total land area below 20metres in elevation (Jaiteh & Saho, 2006). The river is politically significant too as its tributaries, locally known as bolongs, form the natural boundaries of the countries administrative regions. 

The Gambia is divided into eight local administrative divisions which are designated as Local Government Areas (LGAs) and they form the basic unit of analysis for this paper because the country’s census data are aggregated according to this geographic class of LGA. The eight Local Government Areas comprise the city of Banjul (the seat of Government), the Kanifing Municipality, and the six local government areas of Brikama, Mansa Konko, Kerewan, Kuntaur, Janjangbureh and Basse. Each of these local government areas corresponds with an administrative region except for Janjangbureh and Kuntaur which jointly formed the Central River Region. The LGAs of Brikama, Mansa Konko, Kerewan, and Basse correspond with the West Coast Region, Lower River Region, North Bank Region and Upper River Region respectively.

Changes in Population Distribution by Census Year

Since 1963 census data is the bench mark for the study of this paper, it is important to analyse the pattern of distribution of the Gambia’s population in 1963 with respect to the land area. The Gambia, as revealed by Table 1, had a total population of only 315, 486 people in 1963. From among the various Local Government Areas, Kerewan was the most populated accounting for 20.0% of the Gambia’s total population in 1963; and Kanifing was the least populated, with only 3.9% of the country’s total population as shown in both Table 1 and Figure 1. 

  Table 1: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area (LGA) in 1963

Local Government Area (LGA)	Land Area (sq. km)	% of Total Land Area	Population in 1963	% of Total Population	1963 Population Density Persons/km2
Banjul	12	0.1%	27 809	8.8%	2317
Kanifing	76	0.7%	12 208	3.9%	161
Brikama	1 764	16.5%	55 393	17.6%	31
Mansa Konko	1 618	15.1%	34 227	10.8%	21
Kerewan	2 255	21.1%	63 045	20.0%	28
Kuntaur	1 467	13.7%	29 003	9.2%	20
Janjanbureh	1 428	13.4%	35 752	11.3%	25
Basse	2 070	19.4%	58 049	18.4%	28
The Gambia	10 690	100%	315 486	100%	30

Sources: GoTG 1996, and Jaiteh & Saho 2006 

Comparing the size of each LGA as a percentage of the total land area of The Gambia with its total population as a percentage of The Gambia’s 1963 population, as shown in figure 1, revealed a fairly even distribution. For instance, Kerewan Local Government Area accounted for 21.1% of the total land area and 20.0% of the total population. Similarly Basse LGA with 19.4% of the total land area accounted for 18.4% of the total population; and Brikama LGA with 16.5% of the total land area accounted for 17.6% of the 1963 total population. . The pattern is not markedly different for Janjanbureh LGA with 13.4% of the total land area accounting for 11.3% of the total population. 

Fig.1: Comparison of LGAs Land Area with its Population 

On the other hand, the LGAs of Mansa Konko and Kuntaur had significant differences between their sizes of land area (15.1% and 13.7%) and proportion of total population (10.8% and 9.2% respectively). The same is true for the LGAs of Banjul and Kanifing which accounted for larger proportion of population (8.8% and 3.9%) than land area (0.1% and 0.7%). It is intriguing to observe that the LGAs of Banjul, Kanifing and Brikama accounted for larger percentage of population than area whereas the remaining LGAs had larger percentage of area than population.

As shown in both Table 1 and Figure 1, the most populous LGA in 1963 was Kerewan, Followed by Basse, then Brikama, Janjanbureh, Mansa Konko, Kuntaur, Banjul and Kanifing. This matched fairly well with the ranking of LGAs according to size which has Kerewan as the largest, followed by Basse, then Brikama, Mansa Konko, Kuntaur, Janjanbureh, Kanifing and Banjul.

Since the Local Government Areas have very large differences in their areal extent, the density which deals with the ratio between the size of population and the area portrays a better picture of the population – resource relationship. The density of population is usually computed as population per square kilometer (km2) of land area. Different types of densities like arithmetic, physiological or nutritional, agricultural, and economic, are devised for utilization in different situations with the aim to arrive at a better indicator for the population resource relationship. In this paper the analysis of density is confined to the simple arithmetic density which refers to the ratio of population of a given geographical unit to the area occupied by that unit. 

 As is evident from Table 1, in 1963 the Gambia had an average density of 30 persons per km2, the sharp differences between LGAs like Banjul (2,317 persons/km2) and Kuntaur (20 persons/km2) notwithstanding. From among the various LGAs, Banjul (2,317 persons/km2), Kanifing (161 persons/km2), and Brikama (31 persons/km2) had densities higher than the national average. The remaining LGAs like Kerewan (28 persons/km2), Basse (28 persons/km2), Janjanbureh (25 persons/km2), Mansa Konko (21 persons/km2), and Kuntaur (20 persons/km2) had densities below the national average of 30 persons/km2. It is interesting to note that the densities for the large LGAs of Kerewan, Basse and Brikama were very close to the national average.  Hence, the country as a whole had a fairly even population distribution as shown by the 1963 dot density map of the Gambia. 

Map 2: GAMBIA 1963 DOT DENSITY 

Table 2: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area (LGA) in 1973

Local Government  Area (LGA) Land Area (sq. km) Population in 1963 Population in 1973 Decadal % Increase % of 1973 Total Population 1973 Population Density (Persons/km2)

Banjul 12 27 809 39 179 41% 7.9% 3265

Kanifing 76 12 208 39 404 223% 8.0% 518

Brikama 1 764 55 393 91 013 64% 18.4% 52

Mansa Konko 1 618 34 227 42 447 24% 8.6% 26

Kerewan 2 255 63 045 93 388 48% 18.9% 41

Kuntaur 1 467 29 003 47 669 64% 9.7% 32

Janjanbureh 1 428 35 752 54 232 52% 11.0% 38

Basse 2 070 58 049 86 167 48% 17.5% 42

The Gambia 10 690 315 486 493 499 56% 100% 46

Sources: GoTG 1996, and Jaiteh & Saho 2006

According to table 2, the 1973 census revealed a 56% increase in the Gambia’s total population from 315, 486 people in 1963 to 493, 499 in 1973. It implied an addition of 178, 013 people within a decade. From among the various LGAs, as shown in the table, Kanifing recorded the highest increase in its share of population which had more than tripled from 12, 208 to 39, 404 people. It registered a whopping 223% increment in its population during the 1963 – 1973 inter census period. Consequently, its share of the total population more than doubled from 3.9% in 1963 to 8.0% in 1973. Next in line were Brikama and Kuntaur LGAs. The population of Brikama LGA rose from 55, 393 people to 91, 013 registering 64% increment in the inter census period. Similarly, Kuntaur Local Government Area’s population had increased by 64% from 29, 003 to 47, 669 people.

In contrast, the population of Mansa Konko increased marginally from 34, 227 in 1963 to 42, 447 in 1973; and so, it registered only 24% increment during the inter census period. Consequently, the LGA recorded a decline in its share of total population from 10.8% to 8.6%. Mansa Konko was followed by Banjul which recorded 41% increment from 27, 809 to 39, 179 people thereby becoming the least populated LGA in 1973, replacing Kanifing. The other LGAs with growth rates below the national average of 56% were Kerewan, the population of which grew from 63, 045 to 93, 388 people and it recorded 48% increment, Basse also recorded 48% increment as its population rose from 58, 049 to 86, 167 people. Janjanbureh’s population grew from 35, 752 to 54 232 persons and it registered 52% increment.

Fig.2: LGAs Population as Percentage of 1963 & 1973 Population

 As shown in figure 2, the 1973 census revealed a decrease in the share of population for all the LGAs except Kanifing, Brikama and Kuntaur. Thus, the rank order of the LGAs according to population got slightly modified with Brikama replacing Basse as the second most populated LGA after Kerewan. Similarly Kuntaur replaced Mansa Konko as the fifth most populated LGA and Banjul was relegated to the bottom replacing Kanifing which took over its position as the seventh most populated LGA.

The Gambia in the decade 1963 – 73 had registered an increase of 16 persons in the average density of her population from 30 persons /km2 to 46 persons /km2. Among the various LGAs, Banjul had maintained its distinction of having the highest density of population (3, 265 persons per km2). It was followed by Kanifing which had more than tripled its density from 161 persons per km2 to 518 persons per km2. Brikama with a density of 52 persons/km2 followed Kanifing. At the other end of the scale was Mansa Konko (26 persons per km2) which replaced Kuntaur as the LGA with the lowest density in the country. It was followed by Kuntaur (32 persons per km2), Janjanbureh (38 persons per km2), Kerewan (41 persons per km2) and Basse (42 persons per km2). Thus, the three LGAs of Banjul, Kanifing and Brikama had densities higher than the national average of 46 persons per km2; whilst the rest of the LGAs continued to have densities lower than the national average.

With respect to the distribution of population, the mismatch between the land areas of the LGAs and their share of the total population had increased over the period. As shown in figure 3, all the LGAs recorded significant difference between their share of land area and population. The widest margins were registered for Banjul, Kanifing and Mansa Konko. Thus, the distribution of the country’s population got more uneven in 1973 than 1963.

Fig.3: Comparison of LGAs Land Area with Population 

According to the 1983 census, as shown in table 3, the Gambia’s population grew from 493, 499 people in 1973 to 687, 817 in 1983 revealing a 39% increase which was lower than the 1963 – 73 inter decadal increment of 56%. However, in absolute terms, it indicated an addition of 194, 318 people within the decade which was more than the 178, 013 people added in the previous decade. Consequently, the population has more than doubled from 315, 486 in 1963 to 687 817 in 1983; just two decades.

From among the LGAs, as shown in the table, only Kanifing and Brikama recorded growth rates higher than the national average of 39%. Kanifing had maintained its distinction of having the highest growth rate of 158% by more than doubling its population from 39, 404 in 1973 to 101, 504 people in 1983. Consequently, it increased its share of the total population from 8.0% in 1973 to 14.6% in 1983; which made it the fourth largest populated LGA for the census year. Brikama also maintained its position as the second fastest growing LGA with a growth rate of 51% from 91, 013 in 1973 to 137, 245 people in 1983. Accordingly, it became the most populous LGA in 1983 accounting for 20% of the country’s total population as shown in figure 4. 

Table 3: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area (LGA) in 1983

Local Government  Area (LGA) Land Area (sq. km) Population in 1973 Population in 1983 Decadal % Increase % of 1983 Total Population 1983 Population Density (Persons/km2)

Banjul 12 39 179 44 188 13% 6.4% 3682

Kanifing 76 39 404 101 504 158% 14.8% 1336

Brikama 1 764 91 013 137 245 51% 20.0% 78

Mansa Konko 1 618 42 447 55 263 30% 8.0% 34

Kerewan 2 255 93 388 112 225 20% 16.3% 50

Kuntaur 1 467 47 669 57 594 21% 8.4% 39

Janjanbureh 1 428 54 232 68 410 26% 9.9% 48

Basse 2 070 86 167 111 388 29% 16.2% 54

The Gambia 10 690 493 499 687 817 39% 100% 64

Sources: GoTG 1996, and Jaiteh & Saho 2006 

From among the LGAs with growth rates less than the national average of 39% during the decade, Banjul registered the lowest growth rate of 13% in 1983 followed by Kerewan (20%), Kuntaur (21%), Janjanbureh (26%), Basse (29%) and Mansa Konko (30%) in that order.

The trend of change observed in 1983 was similar to that of 1973, except that Kuntaur had joined the LGAs with growth rates lower than the national average of 39%. That made Kanifing and Brikama the only LGAs with growth rates higher than the national average. As a result, the rank order of the LGAs according to population size got modified with Brikama replacing Kerewan as the most populous which followed in second place, then Basse (which closely followed Kerewan), Kanifing (which moved up from seventh position), Janjanbureh, Kuntaur,  Mansa Konko and Banjul.

  Fig.4: LGAs Population as Percentage of 1973 & 1983 Population

The 1983 census revealed an average density of 64 persons per km2 for the country, implying an addition of 17 people to the country’s density of 47 in 1973, which was almost the same as the number added in the previous decade. From among the LGAs Banjul maintained the highest with a density of 3, 682 persons per km2 followed by Kanifing which had more than doubled its density from 518 persons per km2 in 1973 to 1, 336 persons per km2 in 1983. Brikama followed with a density of 78, for the LGAs with densities more than the national average of 64. For the LGAs with densities less than the national average, Mansa Konko maintained the lowest position with 34 persons per km2, followed by Kuntaur (39), Janjanbureh (48), Kerewan (50) and Basse (54) in that order. 

 Fig.5: Comparison of LGAs Land Area with Population

The distribution of the country’s population continued to be unbalanced because the mismatch between the proportion of the areas of the LGAs and population continued to widen as shown in figure 5. The population continued to concentrate in the two LGAs of Kanifing and Brikama which increased their share of population significantly during the decade. The rest of the LGAs continued to register a reduction in their share of population; thus, widening the gap between their share of land area and population except for Banjul. 

Table 4: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area (LGA) in 1993

Local Government  Area (LGA) Land Area (sq. km) Population in 1983 Population in 1993 Decadal % Increase % of 1993 Total Population 1993 Population Density (Persons/km2)

Banjul 12 44 188 42 326 -4% 4.1% 3527

Kanifing 76 101 504 228 214 125% 22.0% 3003

Brikama 1 764 137 245 234 917 71% 22.6% 133

Mansa Konko 1 618 55 263 65 146 17.9% 6.3% 40

Kerewan 2 255 112 225 156 462 39.4% 15.1% 69

Kuntaur 1 467 57 594 67 774 17.7% 6.5% 46

Janjanbureh 1 428 68 410 88 247 29% 8.5% 62

Basse 2 070 111 388 155 059 39.2% 14.9% 75

The Gambia 10 690 687 817 1 038 145 51% 100% 97

Sources: GoTG 1996, and Jaiteh & Saho 2006

The 1993 census, as shown in Table 4, revealed that the Gambia had a population of 1, 038, 145 people and it registered 51% growth rate during the inter census period. It pointed out an addition of 350, 328 people to the country’s population within a decade; a number which was more than the Gambia’s 1963 total population of 315, 486 people and almost doubled the 178, 013 persons added in the decade before.

From among the LGAs Kanifing and Brikama continued to register growth rates higher than the national average.  As shown in table 4, Kanifing’s population jumped from 101, 504 in 1983 to 228, 214 people in 1993 registering 125% increment in its population during the decade. Accordingly, as shown in figure 6, its share of the total population soared from 14.8% in 1983 to 22.0% in 1993 making it the second most populous LGA in the country. Characteristically, Brikama followed as the second fastest growing LGA with a growth rate of 71%. Having increased its population from 137, 245 in 1983 to 234, 917  people in 1993 which represented 22.6% of the country’s total population for that year, Brikama continued to be the most populous LGA; although, closely followed by Kanifing as shown in figure 6. 

The rest of the LGAs, as usual, registered growth rates less than the national average of 51% with Banjul (which for the first time recorded a negative growth rate of -4%) at the end of the scale. Banjul was followed by Kuntaur (17.7%), Mansa Konko (17.9%), Janjangbureh (29%), Basse (39.2%) and Kerewan (39.4%) in that order. Thus, the trend of change observed in 1993 was identical to that of 1983 as Kanifing continued to move swiftly up the rank by relegating both Kerewan and Basse to occupy second position after Brikama. Therefore, Brikama continued to be the most populous LGA in 1993, closely followed by Kanifing, then Kerewan, Basse, Janjanbureh, Kuntaur, Mansakonko and Banjul.

  Fig.6: LGAs Population as Percentage of 1983 & 1993 Population

The 1993 census revealed an average density of 97 persons per km2 for Gambia as a whole, implying an addition of 33 persons to the country’s density of 64 in 1983.  Thus, the decade witnessed the highest increase in the country’s density which almost doubled the 17 people added in the previous decade. From among the LGAs, Banjul continued to maintain having the highest density although its density declined slightly from 3,682 persons per km2 in 1983 to 3,527 persons per km2 in 1993. Banjul was closely followed by Kanifing which has more than doubled its density from 1,336 persons per km2 in 1983 to 3,003 persons per km2 in 1993. Brikama, as usual, followed Kanifing with a density of 133 persons per km2 in 1993; up from 78 persons per km2 in 1983 implying an addition of 55 persons to its density. At the other end of the scale, Mansa Konko added only 6 persons to its density of 34 persons per km2 in 1983 and thus continued to have the lowest density of 40 persons per km2 in 1993. Mansa Konko was followed by Kuntaur with 46, Janjangbureh 62, Kerewan 69, and Basse 75.

The distribution of the country’s population maintained its bias towards Kanifing and Brikama. The two LGAs accounted for 44.6% of that year’s total population, even though; they accounted for 17.2% of the country’s total land area. Kanifing which occupied only 0.7% of land area accounted for 22.0% of the country’s total population. Thus, the disparity between the LGA’s proportion of land area and population was largest for Kanifing as shown in figure 7. The same pattern of disparity is seen in all the LGAs, which widened the mismatch between the proportions of the LGAs land area and population except for Banjul. 

 Fig.7: Comparison of LGAs Land Area with Population

According to the 2003 census, the Gambia's population had increased from 1, 038, 145 in 1993 to 1, 360, 680 people in 2003 as shown in table 5. It indicated an addition of 322, 535 persons during the inter census period, which was slightly less than the 350, 328 people added in the previous decade. Thus, the population grew by 31% making it the lowest decadal growth rate percentage-wise for the period under review.

From among the LGAs, as usual, it was only Brikama and Kanifing which registered growth rates higher than the national average of 31%. For the first time, Brikama took over from Kanifing as the LGA with the highest growth rate as shown in figure 8, by recording 65.8% increment which was slightly less than the 71% it recorded in the previous decade. Kanifing recorded a sharp decline in its growth rate from 125% in the previous decade to only 41.4%. Consequently, as it can be seen in figure 8, Kanifing’s  share of the total population marginally increased from 22.0% in 1993 to 23.7% in 2003, whilst that of Brikama increased from 22.6%  in 1993 to 28.6% in 2003. 

Table 5: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area (LGA) in 2003

Local Government  Area (LGA) Land Area (sq. km) Population in 1993 Population in 2003 Decadal % Increase % of 2003 Total  Population 2003 Population Density (Persons/km2)

Banjul 12 42 326 35 061 -17.2% 2.6% 2922

Kanifing 76 228 214 322 735 41.4% 23.7% 4247

Brikama 1 764 234 917 389 594 65.8% 28.6% 221

Mansa Konko 1 618 65 146 72 167 10.5% 5.3% 45

Kerewan 2 255 156 462 172 835 10.8% 12.7% 77

Kuntaur 1 467 67 774 78 491 15.8% 5.8% 54

Janjanbureh 1 428 88 247 107 212 21.5% 7.9% 75

Basse 2 070 155 059 182 586 17.8% 13.4% 88

The Gambia 10 690 1 038 145 1 360 680 31% 100% 127

Source: Jaiteh & Saho 2006

As usual, the remaining LGAs registered growth rates less than the national average of 31%. Among them Banjul continued to be at the bottom with a growth rate of negative 17.2%. Banjul was followed by Kerewan with a growth rate of 10.5%. Mansa Konko followed with a growth rate of 10.8%; Kuntaur 15.8%; Basse 17.8% and Janjangbureh 21.5% in that order. Hence, Brikama maintained its position as the most populous LGA and was followed by Kanifing in second place; albeit, with a wider margin. Basse followed in third place by relegating Kerewan to fourth. The remaining LGAs followed with Janjanbureh in fifth place; Kuntaur, sixth; Mansa Konko, seventh; and Banjul, eight.

 Figure 8: LGAs by Population Size, 1993 & 2003

The density of Gambia’s population increased by 30 persons from 97 persons per km2 in 1993 to 127 persons per km2 in 2003 which was slightly less than the 33 persons added during the previous decade. At the LGA level, Kanifing surpassed Banjul as the LGA with the highest population density for the first time, it added 1,244 people to its density of 3,003 people per km2 in 1993; thus, recording a density of 4,247 people per km2 in 2003. Banjul followed with a density of 2,922 down from 3,527 in 1993 recording a reduction of 605 people per km2 in its density. Brikama followed with a density of 221 persons per km2 recording an addition of 84 persons per km2 to its density during the decade. 

Routinely, the rest of the LGAs recorded increments less than 30 persons per km2. Among them Mansa Konko (45) was at the end of the scale, it added only 5 persons to its density of 40 persons per km2 during the decade. Kuntaur (54) followed Mansa Konko as usual with addition of 8 people to its previous density, and then Janjangbureh came after Kuntaur (75) with addition of 13 people, which was followed by Kerewan (77) and Basse (88).

The distribution of the country’s population continued to be more skewed as the two Local Government Areas of Brikama and Kanifing increased their combined population to 52.4% of the 2003 total population, although their combined area accounted for only 17.2% of the total land area. Therefore, the difference between the LGAs’ land area and population continued to increase as shown in figure 9. Kanifing maintained the largest disparity, although the same pattern is seen for all the LGAs except Banjul.

Fig.9: Comparison of LGAs Land Area with Population

The provisional results of the 2013 population census revealed a population of 1,882,450 for the Gambia, recording an increment of 38.3% during the 2003 – 2013 inter census period. This translates to an addition of 521, 770 people which is far more than the 322, 535 people added in the previous decade. As indicated in table 6, Brikama with 79.6% decadal growth rate was the only LGA which had a growth rate higher than the national average of 38.3%. It was followed by Basse at a distant second place with 31.4%, Kerewan with 27.9%, Kuntaur 26.3%, Janjangbureh and Kanifing with 18.4% each, Mansa Konko 14.1% and Banjul -10.7%. 

Table 6: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area (LGA) in 2013

Local Government  Area (LGA) Land Area (sq. km) Population in 2003 Population in 2013 Decadal % Increase % of 2013 Total  Population Population Density (Persons/km2)

Banjul 12 35 061 31,301 -10.7% 1.7 % 2,559

Kanifing 76 322 735 382,096 18.4% 20.3 % 5,058

Brikama 1 764 389 594 699,704 79.6% 37.2 % 397

Mansa Konko 1 618 72 167 82,361 14.1% 4.4 % 51

Kerewan 2 255 172 835 221,054 27.9% 11.7 % 98

Kuntaur 1 467 78 491 99,108 26.3% 5.3 % 68

Janjanbureh 1 428 107 212 126,910 18.4% 6.7 % 89 

Basse 2 070 182 586 239,916 31.4% 12.7 % 116 

The Gambia 10 690 1 360 680 1,882,450 38.3% 100% 176

Source: GBoS 2013

The ranking of LGAs according to population size remained the same as Brikama continued to lead by increasing its share of the country’s total population from 28.6% in 2003 to 32.7% in 2013 as shown in figure 10. Kanifing followed at a distance in second position as its share of the population decreased, for the first time, from 23.7% in 2003 to 20.3% in 2013. Similarly, Basse followed in third place albeit its share of the total population has also reduced from 13.4% in 2003 to 12.7% in 2013. Kerewan followed in fourth place with 11.7% of the total population in 2013 down from 12.7% in 2003. Janjanbureh followed in fifth place with 6.7% in 2013 down from 7.9% in 2003. Kuntaur followed with 5.3% down from 5.8% in 2003. Then Mansa Konko followed with 4.4% down from 5.3% in 2003 and finally Banjul with 1.7% down from 2.6% in 2003. 

Figure 10: LGAs by Population Size, 2003 & 2013

As shown in Table 6, the 2013 preliminary census results revealed that the Gambia has an average density of 176 persons per km2. This indicates an addition of 49 persons per km2 to 127 persons per km2 in 2003 which is the highest for a decade. At the LGA level, Kanifing continued to maintain the highest population density with 5,058 persons per km2. Banjul followed with a density of 2,559 down from 2,922 in 2003 recording a reduction of 363 people per km2 in its density. Brikama followed with a density of 397 persons per km2 recording an addition of 176 persons per km2 to its density during the decade. 

Routinely, the rest of the LGAs recorded increments less than 49 persons per km2. Among them Mansa Konko (51) was at the end of the scale, it added only 6 persons to its density of 45 persons per km2 during the decade. Kuntaur (68) followed Mansa Konko as usual with addition of 14 people to its previous density, and then Janjangbureh (89) came after Kuntaur, which was followed by Kerewan (98) and Basse (116).

The distribution of the country’s population continued to be more skewed as Brikama Local Government Area alone accounted for 37.2% of the 2013 total population as shown in figure 11, which is slightly less than 40.8%, the combined population of the LGAs of Mansa Konko, Kerewan, Kuntaur, Janjangbureh and Basse. Interestingly, these five   LGAs accounts for 82.7% of the Gambia total land area.

 Fig.11: Comparison of LGAs Land Area with Population

As shown in maps 3 & 4, the Gambia’s population distributional pattern has changed strikingly between 1963 and 2013. In 2013 the Gambia’s population has not only more than quintupled to 1,882,450 in five decades, but has developed such an uneven distribution that the two Local Government Areas of Brikama with 699,704 people, and Kanifing with 382,096 people accounted for 1,081,800 or 57.5% of the 2013 total population, although they jointly occupied only 17.2% of the total land area. This change becomes more remarkable when 1963 data is referenced as they accounted for only 21.5% of the country’s population or 67, 601 people. This reveals that the Gambia’s population is not only characterized by rapid growth, but is increasingly skewed in its distribution.  Factors responsible for these changes important as they are fall beyond the scope of this paper which restricts itself to analyzing the changes in the pattern of distribution.

Map 3: GAMBIA 2013 DOT DENSITY 

Prepar 

Map 4: GAMBIA 1963 DOT DENSITY

Although all the remaining LGAs registered considerable drop in their share of the total population from 1963 to 2013 as indicated by the histograms in map 5, it was more outstanding for Banjul and Mansa Konko, which interestingly are the Adjacent LGAs to Kanifing and Brikama respectively. Banjul’s share of the total population plummeted from 8.8% in 1963 to 1.7% in 2013, whilst that of Mansa Konko slumped from 10.8% in 1963 to 4.4% in 2013. Kuntaur, which had increased its share of the total population from 9.2% in 1963 to 9.7% in 1973 as shown in map 5, also recorded a significant drop in its proportion of the Gambia’s total population from 9.2% in 1963 to 5.3% in 2013. Similarly, Kerewan’s proportion of the total population dropped significantly from 20% in 1963 to 11.7% in 2013. Basse and Janjanbureh LGAs also recorded a continuous drop in their share of the Gambia’s total population from 18.4 and 11.3 percentage points in 1963 to 12.7 and 6.7 percentage points in 2013 respectively. 

A comparison of the size of the Local Government Areas as percentage of the Gambia’s total land area with their population as proportion of the country’s 2013 total population revealed the increasing skewness of the Gambia’s population distribution. For example, Kerewan being the largest LGA with 21.1% of the country’s total land area accounted for mere 11.7% of the country’s total population. Basse, which followed with 19.4% of the total land area accounted for just 2.7% of the total population. Brikama, the third largest LGA, with 16.5% of the total land area accounted for 37.2% of the 2013 total population and was the most populous LGA. Mansa Konko with 15.1% of the total land area was the fourth largest LGA; yet, it accounted for only 4.4% of the total population. Similarly, Kuntaur, the fifth largest LGA with 13.7% of land area accounted for mere 5.3% of the total population. Janjanbureh with 13.4% of the total land area was the sixth largest LGA and accounted for 6.7% of the total population. Kanifing, the seventh largest LGA, with just 0.7% of the total land area accounted for as much as 20.3% of the total population. Banjul, the smallest LGA, with only 0.1% of the total land area accounted for 1.7% of the country’s total population in 2013.

Map 5: GAMBIA LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA’S POPULATION 1963 TO 2013 

Analyzing the Changing Pattern of the Gambia’s Population Distribution from 1963 to 2013 using the Lorenz Curve

 The Lorenz curve is a graphic depiction of distribution initially devised to indicate concentrations of income or wealth, but is now widely used in population geography to measure population concentrations when information about an area is available for equivalent areal units like LGAs. It involves plotting cumulative percentages of population of Local Government Areas against cumulative percentages of the areas of the LGAs. Units of areas are ranked according to the density of population in ascending order and then populations and areas of these units are totalled to give cumulative percentages of area and population as seen in table 6. The cumulative percentages of population are then plotted against the cumulative percentages of area and the points are joined together to form a ‘curve’ as seen in figure 10. If the curve follows a diagonal, it would indicate an even distribution of population; that means each Local Government Area contains a proportion of the Gambia’s total population equalled to its proportion of the country’s total land area. Usually, there is a considerable departure from this and the greater the curvature the greater the unevenness of the population distribution. The variation between the Lorenz curve and the diagonal is called the inequality gap and is equivalent to the index of concentration referred to as concentration index (CI).

The Concentration Index (CI) is the deviation of the curve from the diagonal line and it is the proportion of inequality in the distribution of population in relation to the area. A concentration index (CI) of zero is the diagonal on the Lorenz curve.  On the contrary, a concentration index (CI) of hundred indicates perfect concentration, which means that the entire population is confined in a single geographical unit. For instance, if the whole population of the Gambia is found in only one of the eight Local Government Areas, then CI would be equal to 100. Thus, the concentration index shows the percentage of population that should be redistributed to produce a perfect balance between the area and population. As shown in table 6, 13.1% of the Gambia’s population should have been redistributed to attain a perfect balance between the country’s population and area in 1963; whereas in 2013, this Percentage has more than tripled to 41.9%. The Lorenz curve at figure 10 reveals this fact. 

.

The concentration index (CI) is algebraically expressed as CI=1/2∑ |x-y| and it is equal to the maximum of |X-Y|. In table 6, 1963 population is represented by ya; and 2013 population by yb. Hence, for the year 1963, CI = 1/2∑|x-ya| = ½(26.2) = 13.1. This is equal to the maximum of |X-Ya| with the corresponding values of 82.7 for X, and 69.7 for Ya, see table 6. For the year 2013, CI = 1/2∑ |x-yb| = ½(83.8) = 41.9, which is equal to the maximum of |X-Yb| with the corresponding values of 82.7 for X, and 40.8 for Yb as shown in table 6.

Table 6: Cumulative percentage of total land area and cumulative percentages of the total population for 2003 and 1963

Local Government  Area (LGA) % Land Area

(x) % of 

1963 Population

(ya) |x-ya| Cumulative % Land Area

(X) Cumulative % of 1963 Population

 (Ya) |X -Ya| % of 2013 Population

(yb) |x-yb| Cumulative % of 2013 Population

 (Yb) |X-Yb|

The Gambia 100% 100% 100%

Mansa Konko 15.1% 10.8% 4.3 15.1 10.8 4.3 4.4% 10.7 4.4 10.7

Kuntaur 13.7% 9.2% 4.5 28.8 20.0 8.8 5.3% 8.4 9.7 19.1

Janjan

bureh 13.4% 11.3% 2.3 42.2 31.3 10.9 6.7% 6.7 16.4 25.8

Kerewan 21.1% 20.0% 1.1 63.3 51.3 12 11.7% 9.4 28.1 35.2

Basse 19.4% 18.4% 1.0 82.7 69.7 13 12.7% 6.7 40.8 41.9

Brikama 16.5% 17.6% 1.1 99.2 87.3 11.9 37.2% 20.7 78 21.2

Kanifing 0.7% 3.9% 3.2 99.9 91.2 8.7 20.3% 19.6 98.3 1.6

Banjul 0.1% 8.8% 8.7 100 100 0 1.7% 1.6 100 0

                                         ∑|x-ya| = 26.2                                                  ∑|x-yb| = 83.8

                                         CI=1/2∑|x-ya|                                              CI = 1/2∑|x-yb|

                                             = 13.1                                                            = 41.9

CONCLUSION

Adding more than half a million people to its population within a decade should be a concern to both policy makers and planners because at this rate of growth the country’s population is expected to double in 21 years. Coupled with this, is the fact that the Gambia’s population distribution is increasingly skewed towards the coast. For instance, a comparison of the population growth of Brikama and Mansa Konko LGAs revealed that the population of Brikama has more than duo-decupled from 55, 393 in 1963 to 699,704 in 2013; whilst that of Mansa Konko slightly more than  doubled from 34, 227 in 1963 to 82,361 in 2013. Thus, Coastal Gambia, which is home to a large and growing proportion of the country’s population, is experiencing serious population pressure with its associated environmental decline even though it has the best ecosystem in the country. Unless the government and development partners take action, population pressures and the associated levels of economic activity will further degrade our environment. Therefore, the challenge for policymakers and development planners is to figure out ways to cater for the demands of the growing population and preserve what remains of our natural habitats for future generations.

References

Chandna, R. C.  (2008). Geography of Population: Concepts, Determinants and 
             Patterns, Kalyani Publishers, New Delhi.
Clark, J. I. (1971) Population Geography and the Developing Countries,
      Pergamon Press, Oxford.
Gambia Bureau of Statistics (2013) 2013 Population and Housing Census        
           Preliminary Results, gbos.www.gov.gm

Government of The Gambia (2007) National Population Policy, Secretariat of  
               the National Population Commission, Office of the Vice President,
                Banjul.

Government of The Gambia (1996) Population Data Bank, Secretariat of the  
                 National Population Commission, Office of the Vice President,
                Banjul.

Hornby, W.F., & Jones, M. (1993). An Introduction to Population Geography,
        Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Jaiteh, M., & Saho, A. (2006). The Gambia Atlas of 2003 Population and 
       Housing Census, The Gambia Bureau of Statistics, Banjul.