CHANGING PATTERN OF GAMBIA’S POPULATION DISTRIBUTION
1963 TO 2003
ABSTRACT
The
stresses of climate change and explosive state of demographic transition in
developing countries like the Gambia have led to the transformation of their
economic activities which initiated redistributive tendencies in their
spatial patterns of employment opportunities. As a result, the spatial
distributional pattern of population in these countries is also undergoing
changes. Analysis of these changes is useful for administrative and socio
economic planning in addressing issues like determining the electoral
constituencies, the provision of education, health and other social
facilities, waste disposal and
management, and more importantly for devising coping strategies for the adverse
effects of climate change on fragile ecosystems and vulnerable groups. It is in
this context that this paper looks at the changes that have taken place in the
distribution of Gambia’s population from 1963 to 2003 based on data of the four
censuses conducted during the period. Although the first country wide census in
The Gambia took place as early as 1881, it was from 1963 that censuses of good
quality have been conducted on defacto basis. Therefore, 1963 census data serve
as the reference point for analysis of the Gambia’s population characteristics.
KEY WORDS: The Gambia, spatial, distributional pattern, change,
analysis, census, data
INTRODUCTION
One of the most important uses of the population census
data is the information it provides about the population settlement pattern in
a geographic area. It is pertinent, therefore, to examine the changes in the pattern of
spatial distribution of the Gambia’s population as revealed by the data of the
four censuses that took place from 1963 to 2003 using the administrative region
of a local government area (LGA) as the unit of analysis.
The concept of
distribution of a population refers to the spatial pattern in which the
population finds its location. Thus, the concern of spatial distribution is the
pattern of spread which may be linear, dispersed, nucleated, or agglomerated
among others. There are several methods of describing the spatial distribution
of a population; among them the percentage distribution is the simplest which
indicates the percentage of a population in a given class of geographical area.
The other simple method is the rank order in which the geographical areas of a
given class are listed in a rank for a census year to enable comparison between
different census years in order to reveal the trend of population growth
overtime. Besides, the median point, the mean point (the centre of population),
the point of minimum aggregate travel, and the point of maximum population
potential are used by population geographers to measure population
distribution. However, in this analysis the simple methods of percentage
distribution and rank order are used to examine the change in the Gambia’s
population distribution from 1963 to 2003. Besides, Lorenz curve is used to
compare the country’s population distribution pattern for 1963 and 2003.
Physical Features and
Administrative Divisions
Situated between
latitude 13⁰N and
14⁰N, and between
longitude 14⁰W and 17⁰W on the bulge of the western coast of Africa along the
Atlantic Ocean, with a total area of 11, 420 km2 and occupying a
land area of 10, 690km2 (Jaiteh & Saho, 2006), the Gambia is the
smallest country on mainland Africa. The country is surrounded by Senegal, its
only neighbor, on all sides except the west which opens into the Atlantic Ocean.
The climate of the
country is conditioned by its tropical latitude and the seasonal migration of
the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) – the line of low pressure at which
the hot dry continental wind from the northeast meets the moist oceanic southwest
wind to produce precipitation. Hence, the climate is characterized by a
distinct dry season between November and May when the position of the ITCZ
shifts towards the coast and the northeast trade winds, locally referred to as
Harmattan, became dominant; and a wet season from June to October when the low
pressure centre migrates to the interior thereby bringing the area under the
influence of the southwest monsoons from the Atlantic. The influence of the
Cool Canary Currents in this part of the Atlantic modified the coastal climate
to a sub – tropical type which makes the climate of the area more conducive
than the interior of the country which has a typical tropical climate of the
Sudanic type.
Map 1: Elevation
Map of the Gambia Adapted From Jaiteh & Sarr 2011
The River Gambia, after
which the country is named, dominates the topography (see map 1) as it flows
through the entire length of the country in east – west direction and its
floodplains which are flanked by low laterite hills form the width of the
country which is about 48km along the coast and 24km in the interior. Hence,
the country is generally flat with more than 48% of the total land area below
20metres in elevation (Jaiteh & Saho, 2006). The river is politically
significant too as its tributaries, locally known as bolongs, form the natural
boundaries of most of the countries administrative regions.
The Gambia is divided
into eight local administrative divisions which are designated as Local
Government Areas (LGAs) and they form the basic unit of analysis for this paper
because the country’s census data are aggregated according to this geographic
class of LGA. The eight Local Government Areas comprise the city of Banjul (the
seat of Government), the Kanifing Municipality, and the six local government areas
of Brikama, Mansa Konko, Kerewan, Kuntaur, Janjangbureh and Basse. Each of
these local government areas corresponds with an administrative region except
for Janjangbureh and Kuntaur which jointly formed the Central River Region. The
LGAs of Brikama, Mansa Konko, Kerewan, and Basse correspond with the West Coast
Region, Lower River Region, North Bank Region and Upper River Region
respectively.
Changes
in Population Distribution by Census Year
Since
1963 census data is the bench mark for the study of this paper, it is important
to analyse the pattern of distribution of the Gambia’s population in 1963 with
respect to the land area.
Table 1: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area
(LGA) in 1963
|
Local Government Area (LGA)
|
Land Area (sq. km)
|
% of Total Land Area
|
Population in 1963
|
% of Total Population
|
Population Density Persons/km2
|
|
Banjul
|
12
|
0.1%
|
27 809
|
8.8%
|
2317
|
|
Kanifing
|
76
|
0.7%
|
12 208
|
3.9%
|
161
|
|
Brikama
|
1 764
|
16.5%
|
55 393
|
17.6%
|
31
|
|
Mansa Konko
|
1 618
|
15.1%
|
34 227
|
10.8%
|
21
|
|
Kerewan
|
2 255
|
21.1%
|
63 045
|
20.0%
|
28
|
|
Kuntaur
|
1 467
|
13.7%
|
29 003
|
9.2%
|
20
|
|
Janjanbureh
|
1 428
|
13.4%
|
35 752
|
11.3%
|
25
|
|
Basse
|
2 070
|
19.4%
|
58 049
|
18.4%
|
28
|
|
The Gambia
|
10 690
|
100%
|
315 486
|
100%
|
30
|
Sources: GoTG 1996, and
Jaiteh & Saho 2006
The Gambia, as revealed
by Table 1, had a total population of 315, 486 people in 1963. From among the
various Local Government Areas, Kerewan was the most populated accounting for
20.0% of the Gambia’s total population in 1963; and Kanifing was the least
populated, with only 3.9% of the country’s total population as shown in both
Table 1 and Figure 1.
Figure 1: LGAs by
Area and Population Size - 1963
Comparing the size of
each LGA as a percentage of the total land area of The Gambia with its total
population as a percentage of The Gambia’s 1963 population, as shown in figure
1, revealed a fairly even distribution. For instance, Kerewan Local Government
Area accounted for 21.1% of the total land area and 20.0% of the total
population. Similarly Basse LGA with 19.4% of the total land area accounted for
18.4% of the total population; and Brikama LGA with 16.5% of the total land
area accounted for 17.6% of the 1963 total population. The pattern is not markedly
different for Janjanbureh LGA with 13.4% of the total land area accounting for
11.3% of the total population. On the other hand, the LGAs of Mansa Konko and
Kuntaur had significant differences between their sizes of land area (15.1% and
13.7%) and proportion of total population (10.8% and 9.2% respectively). The
same is true for the LGAs of Banjul and Kanifing which accounted for larger
proportion of population (8.8% and 3.9%) than land area (0.1% and 0.7%). It is
intriguing to observe that the LGAs of Banjul, Kanifing and Brikama accounted
for larger percentage of population than area whereas the remaining LGAs had
larger percentage of area than population.
As shown in both Table
1 and Figure 1, the most populous LGA in 1963 was Kerewan, Followed by Basse,
then Brikama, Janjanbureh, Mansa Konko, Kuntaur, Banjul and Kanifing. This
matched fairly well with the ranking of LGAs according to size which has
Kerewan as the largest, followed by Basse, then Brikama, Mansa Konko, Kuntaur,
Janjanbureh, Kanifing and Banjul.
Since the Local
Government Areas have very large differences in their areal extent, the density
which deals with the ratio between the size of population and the area portrays
a better picture of the population – resource relationship. The density of
population is usually computed as population per square kilometer (km2)
of land area. Different types of densities like arithmetic, physiological or
nutritional, agricultural, and economic, are devised for utilization in
different situations with the aim to arrive at a better indicator for the
population resource relationship. In this paper the analysis of density is
confined to the simple arithmetic density which refers to the ratio of
population of a given geographical unit to the area occupied by that unit.
As is evident from Table 1, in 1963 the Gambia
had an average density of 30 persons per km2, the sharp differences
between LGAs like Banjul (2,317 persons/km2) and Kuntaur (20
persons/km2) notwithstanding. From among the various LGAs, Banjul
(2,317 persons/km2), Kanifing (161 persons/km2), and
Brikama (31 persons/km2) had densities more than the national
average. The remaining LGAs like Kerewan (28 persons/km2), Basse (28
persons/km2), Janjanbureh (25 persons/km2), Mansa
Konko (21 persons/km2), and Kuntaur (20 persons/km2)
had densities below the national average of 30 persons/km2. It is
interesting to note that the densities for the large LGAs of Kerewan, Basse and Brikama were very close to the
national average.
Table 2: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area
(LGA) in 1973
|
Local Government Area (LGA)
|
Land Area (sq. km)
|
Population in 1963
|
Population in 1973
|
Decadal % Increase
|
% of 1973 Total Population
|
Population Density (Persons/km2)
|
|
Banjul
|
12
|
27 809
|
39 179
|
41%
|
7.9%
|
3265
|
|
Kanifing
|
76
|
12 208
|
39 404
|
223%
|
8.0%
|
518
|
|
Brikama
|
1 764
|
55 393
|
91 013
|
64%
|
18.4%
|
52
|
|
Mansa Konko
|
1 618
|
34 227
|
42 447
|
24%
|
8.6%
|
26
|
|
Kerewan
|
2 255
|
63 045
|
93 388
|
48%
|
18.9%
|
41
|
|
Kuntaur
|
1 467
|
29 003
|
47 669
|
64%
|
9.7%
|
32
|
|
Janjanbureh
|
1 428
|
35 752
|
54 232
|
52%
|
11.0%
|
38
|
|
Basse
|
2 070
|
58 049
|
86 167
|
48%
|
17.5%
|
42
|
|
The Gambia
|
10 690
|
315 486
|
493 499
|
56%
|
100%
|
46
|
Sources: GoTG 1996, and
Jaiteh & Saho 2006
According to table 2,
the 1973 census revealed a 56% increase in the Gambia’s total population from
315, 486 people in 1963 to 493, 499 in 1973. It implied an addition of 178, 013
people within a decade. From among the various LGAs, as shown in figures 2
& 3, Kanifing recorded the highest increase in its share of population
which had more than tripled from 12, 208 to 39, 404 people. It registered a
whopping 223% increment in its population during the 1963 – 1973 inter census
period. Consequently, its share of the total population more than doubled from
3.9% in 1963 to 8.0% in 1973. Next in line were Brikama and Kuntaur LGAs. The
population of Brikama LGA rose from 55, 393 people to 91, 013 registering 64%
increment in the inter census period. Similarly, Kuntaur Local Government
Area’s population had increased by 64% from 29, 003 to 47, 669 people.
Figure 2: LGAs by Population
Size, 1963 & 1973
In contrast, the population of Mansa Konko
increased marginally from 34, 227 in 1963 to 42, 447 in 1973; and so, it
registered only 24% increment during the inter census period. Hence, the LGA recorded
a decline in its share of total population from 10.8% to 8.6%. Mansa Konko was
followed by Banjul which recorded 41% increment from 27, 809 to 39, 179 people
thereby becoming the least populated LGA in 1973, replacing Kanifing. The other
LGAs with growth rates below the national average of 56% were Kerewan, the
population of which grew from 63, 045 to 93, 388 people and it recorded 48%
increment, Basse also recorded 48% increment as its population rose from 58,
049 to 86, 167 people. Janjanbureh’s population grew from 35, 752 to 54 232 persons
and it registered 52% increment.
Figure 3: LGAs Population as Percentage of 1963 & 1973 Population
The 1973
census revealed a decrease in the share of population of all the LGAs except
for Kanifing, Brikama and Kuntaur. Thus, the rank order of the LGAs according
to population got slightly modified with Brikama replacing Basse as the second
most populated LGA after Kerewan. Similarly Kuntaur replaced Mansa Konko as the
fifth most populated LGA and Banjul was relegated to the bottom replacing
Kanifing which took over its position as the seventh most populated LGA.
The Gambia in the decade 1963 – 73 had registered
an increase of 16 persons in the average density of her population from 30 /km2 to 46 /km2.
Among the various LGAs, Banjul had maintained its distinction of having the
highest density of population (3, 265). It was followed by Kanifing which had
more than tripled its density from 161 to 518. Brikama with a density of 52
persons/km2 followed Kanifing. At the other end of the scale was
Mansa Konko (26) which replaced Kuntaur as the LGA with the lowest density in
the country. It was followed by Kuntaur (32), Janjanbureh (38), Kerewan (41) and
Basse (42).
Table 3: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area
(LGA) in 1983
|
Local Government Area (LGA)
|
Land Area (sq. km)
|
Population in 1973
|
Population in 1983
|
Decadal % Increase
|
% of 1983 Total Population
|
Population Density (Persons/km2)
|
|
Banjul
|
12
|
39 179
|
44 188
|
13%
|
6.4%
|
3682
|
|
Kanifing
|
76
|
39 404
|
101 504
|
158%
|
14.8%
|
1336
|
|
Brikama
|
1 764
|
91 013
|
137 245
|
51%
|
20.0%
|
78
|
|
Mansa Konko
|
1 618
|
42 447
|
55 263
|
30%
|
8.0%
|
34
|
|
Kerewan
|
2 255
|
93 388
|
112 225
|
20%
|
16.3%
|
50
|
|
Kuntaur
|
1 467
|
47 669
|
57 594
|
21%
|
8.4%
|
39
|
|
Janjanbureh
|
1 428
|
54 232
|
68 410
|
26%
|
9.9%
|
48
|
|
Basse
|
2 070
|
86 167
|
111 388
|
29%
|
16.2%
|
54
|
|
The Gambia
|
10 690
|
493 499
|
687 817
|
39%
|
100%
|
64
|
Sources: GoTG 1996, and
Jaiteh & Saho 2006
According to the 1983
census, as shown in table 3, the Gambia’s population grew from 493, 499 people
in 1973 to 687, 817 in 1983 revealing a 39% increase which was lower than the
1963 – 73 inter decadal increment of 56%. However, in absolute terms, it
indicated an addition of 194, 318 people within the decade which was more than
the178, 013 people added in the previous decade.
Figure 4: LGAs by Population
Size, 1973 & 1983
From among the LGAs, as
shown in figure 4, only Kanifing and Brikama recorded growth rates higher than
the national average of 39%. Kanifing had maintained its distinction of having
the highest growth rate of 158% by more than doubling its population from 39,
404 in 1973 to 101, 504 people in 1983. Hence, it increased its share of the
total population from 8.0% in 1973 to 14.6% in 1983 as shown in figure 5; which
made it the fourth largest populated LGA for that census year. Brikama also
maintained its position as the second fastest growing LGA with a growth rate of
51% from 91, 013 in 1973 to 137, 245 people in 1983. Consequently, it became
the most populous LGA in 1983 accounting for 20% of the country’s total
population.
Figure 5: LGAs Population as Percentage of 1973 & 1983 Population
From among the LGAs
with growth rates less than the national average of 39% during the decade,
Banjul registered the lowest growth rate of 13% in 1983 followed by Kerewan
(20%), Kuntaur (21%), Janjanbureh (26%), Basse (29%) and Mansa Konko (30%) in
that order.
The trend of change
observed in 1983 was similar to that of 1973, except that Kuntaur had joined
the LGAs with growth rates lower than the national average of 39%. That made
Kanifing and Brikama to be the only LGAs with growth rates more than the
national average. As a result, the rank order of the LGAs according to
population size got modified with Brikama replacing Kerewan as the most
populous which followed in second place, then Basse (which closely followed
Kerewan), Kanifing (which moved up from seventh position), Janjanbureh,
Kuntaur, Mansa Konko and Banjul.
The 1983 census
revealed an average density of 64 persons per km2 for the country,
implying an addition of 17 people to the country’s density of 47 in 1973, which
was almost the same as the number added in the previous decade. From among the
LGAs Banjul maintained the highest with a density of 3, 682 persons per km2
followed by Kanifing which had more than doubled its density from 518
persons per km2 in 1973 to 1, 336 persons per km2 in 1983.
Brikama followed with a density of 78, for the LG As with densities more than
the national average of 64. For the LGAs with densities less than the national
average, Mansa Konko maintained the lowest position with 34 persons per km2,
followed by Kuntaur (39), Janjanbureh (48), Kerewan (50) and Basse (54) in that
order.
Table 4: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area
(LGA) in 1993
|
Local
Government Area (LGA)
|
Land Area
(sq. km)
|
Population
in 1983
|
Population
in 1993
|
Decadal %
Increase
|
% of
Total Population
|
Population
Density (Persons/km2)
|
|
Banjul
|
12
|
44 188
|
42 326
|
-4%
|
4.1%
|
3527
|
|
Kanifing
|
76
|
101 504
|
228 214
|
125%
|
22.0%
|
3003
|
|
Brikama
|
1 764
|
137 245
|
234 917
|
71%
|
22.6%
|
133
|
|
Mansa
Konko
|
1 618
|
55 263
|
65 146
|
17.9%
|
6.3%
|
40
|
|
Kerewan
|
2 255
|
112 225
|
156 462
|
39.4%
|
15.1%
|
69
|
|
Kuntaur
|
1 467
|
57 594
|
67 774
|
17.7%
|
6.5%
|
46
|
|
Janjanbureh
|
1 428
|
68 410
|
88 247
|
29%
|
8.5%
|
62
|
|
Basse
|
2 070
|
111 388
|
155 059
|
39.2%
|
14.9%
|
75
|
|
The
Gambia
|
10 690
|
687 817
|
1 038 145
|
51%
|
100%
|
97
|
Sources: GoTG 1996, and
Jaiteh & Saho 2006
The 1993 census, as
shown in Table 4, revealed that the Gambia had a population of 1, 038, 145
people and it registered 51% growth rate during the inter census period. It
pointed out an addition of 350, 328 people to the country’s population within a
decade; a number which was more than the Gambia’s 1963 total population of 315,
486 people and almost doubled the 178, 013 persons added in the decade before.
Figure 6: LGAs by Population
Size, 1983 & 1993
From among the LGAs Kanifing
and Brikama continued to register growth rates higher than the national
average. As shown in table 4 &
figure 6, Kanifing’s population jumped from 101, 504 in 1983 to 228, 214 people
in 1993 registering 125% increment in its population during the decade.
Accordingly, as shown in figure 7, its share of the total population soared
from 14.8% in 1983 to 22.0% in 1993 making it the second most populous LGA in
the country. Characteristically, Brikama followed as the second fastest growing
LGA with a growth rate of 71%. Having increased its population from 137, 245 in
1983 to 234, 917 people in 1993 which
represented 22.6% of the country’s total population for that year, Brikama
continued to be the most populous LGA; although, closely followed by Kanifing
as shown in figure 7.
Figure 7: LGAs Population as Percentage of 1983 & 1993 Population
The rest of the LGAs,
as usual, registered growth rates less than the national average of 51% with
Banjul (which for the first time recorded a negative growth rate of -4%) at the
end of the scale. Banjul was followed by Kuntaur (17.7%), Mansa Konko (17.9%),
Janjangbureh (29%), Basse (39.2%) and Kerewan (39.4%) in that order. Thus, the
trend of change observed in 1993 was identical to that of 1983 as Kanifing
continued to move swiftly up the rank by relegating both Kerewan and Basse to
occupy second position after Brikama. Therefore, Brikama continued to be the
most populous LGA in 1993, closely followed by Kanifing, then Kerewan, Basse,
Janjanbureh, Kuntaur, Mansakonko and Banjul.
The 1993 census
revealed an average density of 97 persons per km2 for Gambia as a
whole, implying an addition of 33 persons to the country’s density of 64 in
1983. Thus, the decade witnessed the
highest increase in the country’s density which almost doubled the 17 people
increment of the previous decade. From among the LGAs, Banjul continued to
maintain having the highest density although its density declined slightly from
3,682 persons per km2 in 1983 to 3,527 persons per km2
in 1993. Banjul was closely followed by Kanifing which has more than
doubled its density from 1,336 persons per km2 in 1983 to 3,003
persons per km2 in 1993. Brikama, as usual, followed Kanifing with a
density of 133 persons per km2 in 1993; up from 78 persons per km2
in 1983 implying an addition of 55 persons to its density. At the other
end of the scale, Mansa Konko added only 6 persons to its density of 34 persons
per km2 in 1983 and thus continued to have the lowest
density of 40 persons per km2 in 1993. Mansa Konko was followed by
Kuntaur with 46, Janjangbureh 62, Kerewan 69, and Basse 75.
Table 5: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area
(LGA) in 2003
|
Local Government Area (LGA)
|
Land Area (sq. km)
|
Population in 1993
|
Population in 2003
|
Decadal % Increase
|
% of Total 2003 Population
|
Population Density (Persons/km2)
|
|
Banjul
|
12
|
42 326
|
35 061
|
-17.2%
|
2.6%
|
2922
|
|
Kanifing
|
76
|
228 214
|
322 735
|
41.4%
|
23.7%
|
4247
|
|
Brikama
|
1 764
|
234 917
|
389 594
|
65.8%
|
28.6%
|
221
|
|
Mansa Konko
|
1 618
|
65 146
|
72 167
|
10.5%
|
5.3%
|
45
|
|
Kerewan
|
2 255
|
156 462
|
172 835
|
10.8%
|
12.7%
|
77
|
|
Kuntaur
|
1 467
|
67 774
|
78 491
|
15.8%
|
5.8%
|
54
|
|
Janjanbureh
|
1 428
|
88 247
|
107 212
|
21.5%
|
7.9%
|
75
|
|
Basse
|
2 070
|
155 059
|
182 586
|
17.8%
|
13.4%
|
88
|
|
The Gambia
|
10 690
|
1 038 145
|
1 360 680
|
31%
|
100%
|
127
|
Source: Jaiteh & Saho
2006
According to the 2003
census, the Gambia's population increased from 1, 038, 145 in 1993 to 1,
360, 680 people as shown in table 5. It indicated an
addition of 322, 535 persons during the inter census period, which was slightly
less than the 350, 328 people added in the previous decade. Thus, the population
grew by 31% making it the lowest decadal growth rate percentagewise for the
period under review.
From among the LGAs, as
usual, it was only Brikama and Kanifing which registered growth rates higher
than the national average of 31%. For the first time, Brikama took over from
Kanifing as the LGA with the highest growth rate by recording 65.8% increment
slightly less than the 71% recorded in the previous decade. Kanifing recorded a
sharp decline in its growth rate from125% in the previous decade to only 41.4%.
As it can be seen in figure 9, Kanifing’s
share of the total population marginally increased from 22.0% in 1993 to
23.7% in 2003, whilst that of Brikama increased from 22.6% in 1993 to 28.6% in 2003.
Figure 8: LGAs by Population
Size, 1993 & 2003
As usual, the remaining
LGAs registered growth rates less than the national average of 31%. Among them
Banjul continued to be at the bottom with a growth rate of negative 17.2%.
Banjul was followed by Kerewan with a growth rate of 10.5%. Mansa Konko
followed with a growth rate of 10.8%; Kuntaur 15.8%; Basse 17.8% and Janjangbureh
21.5% in that order. Hence, Brikama maintained its position as the most
populous LGA and was followed by Kanifing in second place with an increasing
margin. Basse followed in third place by relegating Kerewan to fourth. The
remaining LGAs followed with Janjanbureh in fifth place; Kuntaur, sixth; Mansa
Konko, seventh; and Banjul, eight.
Figure 9: LGAs Population as Percentage of 1993 & 2003 Population
The density of Gambia’s
population also increased by 30 persons from 97 persons per km2 in
1993 to 127 persons per km2 in 2003 which was slightly less than the
33 persons added during the previous decade. At the LGA level, Kanifing
surpassed Banjul as the LGA with the highest population density for the first
time, it added 1,244 people to its density of 3,003 people per km2 in
1993; thus, recording a density of 4,247 people per km2 in 2003.
Banjul followed with a density of 2,922 down from 3,527 in 1993 recording a
reduction of 605 people per km2 in its density. Brikama followed
with a density of 221 persons per km2 recording an addition of 84
persons per km2 to its density during the decade.
Routinely, the rest of
the LGAs recorded increments less than 30 persons per km2. Among
them Mansa Konko (45) was at the end of the scale, it added only 5 persons to
its density of 40 persons per km2 during the decade. Kuntaur (54)
followed Mansa Konko as usual, and then Janjangbureh came after Kuntaur (75), which
was followed by Kerewan (77) and Basse (88).
As shown in map 2, the
Gambia’s population distributional pattern has changed strikingly from 1963 to
2003. In 2003 the Gambia’s population has not only more than quadrupled to 1,
360, 681 in four decades, but has developed such an uneven distribution that
the two Local Government Areas of Brikama with 389, 594 people, and Kanifing
with 322, 735 people accounted for 52.4% of the 2003 total population, although
they jointly occupied only 17.2% of the total land area. This change becomes
more remarkable when 1963 data is referenced as they accounted for only 21.5%
of the country’s population or 67, 601 people. This reveals that the Gambia’s
population is not only characterized by rapid growth, but is increasingly skewed
in its distribution. Factors responsible
for these changes important as they are fall beyond the scope of this paper
which restricts itself to analyzing the changes in the pattern of distribution.
Although
all the remaining LGAs registered a drop in their share of the total population
from 1963 to 2003 as indicated by the histograms in map 2, it was more
outstanding for Banjul and Mansa Konko, which interestingly are the Adjacent
LGAs to Kanifing and Brikama respectively. Banjul’s share of the total population
plummeted from 8.8% in 1963 to 2.6% in 2003, whilst that of Mansa Konko slumped
from 10.8% in 1963 to 5.3% in 2003. Kuntaur, which had increased its share of
the total population from 9.2% in 1963 to 9.7% in 1973 as shown in map 2, also
recorded a significant drop in its proportion of the Gambia’s total population
from 9.2% in 1963 to 5.8% in 2003. Similarly, Kerewan’s proportion of the total
population dropped significantly from 20% in 1963 to 12.7% in 2003. Basse and
Janjanbureh LGAs also recorded a continuous drop in their share of the Gambia’s
total population from 18.4 and 11.3 percentage points in 1963 to 13.4 and 7.9
percentage points in 2003 respectively.
A comparison of
the size of the Local Government Areas as percentage of the Gambia’s total land
area with their population as proportion of the country’s 2003 total population
would revealed the skewed nature of the distributional pattern of the Gambia’s
population. For example, Kerewan being the largest LGA with 21.1% of the
country’s total land area accounted for mere 12.7% of the country’s total
population. Basse, which followed with 19.4% of the
total land area accounted for just 13.4% of the total population. Brikama, the
third largest LGA, with 16.5% of the total land area accounted for 28.6% of the
2003 total population and was the most populous LGA. Mansa Konko with 15.1% of
the total land area was the fourth largest LGA; yet, it accounted for only 5.3%
of the total population. Similarly, Kuntaur, the fifth largest LGA with 13.7%
of land area accounted for mere 5.8% of the total population. Janjanbureh with
13.4% of the total land area was the sixth largest LGA and accounted for 7.9%
of the total population. Kanifing, the seventh largest LGA, with just 0.7% of
the total land area accounted for as much as 23.7% of the total population.
Banjul, the smallest LGA, with only 0.1% of the total land area accounted for
2.6% of the country’s total population in 2003.
Map2:
Distribution of the Gambia's Population by Local Government Area
Analyzing the Changing Pattern of the
Gambia’s Population Distribution Using Lorenz Curve
The Lorenz curve is a
graphic depiction of distribution initially devised to indicate concentrations
of income or wealth, but is now widely used in population geography to measure
population concentrations when information about an area is available for
equivalent areal units like LGAs. It involves plotting cumulative percentages
of population of Local Government Areas against cumulative percentages of the
areas of the LGAs. Units of areas are ranked according to the density of
population in ascending order and then populations and areas of these units are
totalled to give cumulative percentages of area and population as seen in table
6. The cumulative percentages of population are then plotted against the
cumulative percentages of area and the points are joined together to form a
‘curve’ as seen in figure 10. If the curve follows a diagonal, it would
indicate an even distribution of population; that means each Local Government
Area contains a proportion of the Gambia’s total population equalled to its
proportion of the country’s total land area. Usually, there is a considerable
departure from this and the greater the curvature the greater the unevenness of
the population distribution. The variation between the Lorenz curve and the
diagonal is called the inequality gap and is equivalent to the index of
concentration referred to as concentration index (CI).
The Concentration Index
(CI) is the deviation of the curve from the diagonal line and it is the
proportion of inequality in the distribution of population in relation to the
area. A concentration index (CI) of zero is the diagonal on the Lorenz
curve. On the contrary, a concentration
index (CI) of hundred indicates perfect concentration, which means that the
entire population is confined in a single geographical unit. For instance, if
the whole population of the Gambia is found in only one of the eight Local
Government Areas, then CI would be equal to 100. Thus, the concentration index
shows the percentage of population that should be redistributed to produce a
perfect balance between the area and population. As shown in table 6, 13.1% of
the Gambia’s population should have been redistributed to attain a perfect
balance between the country’s population and area; whereas in 2003, this number
had almost tripled to 37.6%. The Lorenz curve at figure 10 reveals this fact.
.
The concentration index
(CI) is algebraically expressed as CI=1/2∑ |x-y| and it is equal to the maximum of |X-Y|. In table 6, 1963
population is represented by ya; and 2003 population by yb. Hence, for the year
1963, CI = 1/2∑ |x-ya| = ½(26.2) = 13.1. This
is equal to the maximum of |X-Ya| with the corresponding values of 82.7 for X,
and 69.7 for Ya, see table 6. For the year 2003, CI = 1/2∑
|x-yb| = ½(75.2) = 37.6, which is equal to the maximum of |X-Yb| with the
corresponding values of 82.7 for X, and 45.1 for Yb as shown in table 6.
Table 6: Cumulative
percentage of total land area and cumulative percentages of the total
population for 2003 and 1963
|
Local
Government Area (LGA)
|
% Land
Area
(x)
|
% of
1963
Population
(ya)
|
|x-ya|
|
Cumulative
% Land Area
(X)
|
Cumulative % of 1963 Population
(Ya)
|
|X -Ya|
|
% of 2003
Population
(yb)
|
|x-yb|
|
Cumulative % of 2003 Population
(Yb)
|
|X-Yb|
|
|
The Gambia
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
|
|
|
100%
|
|
|
|
|
Mansa Konko
|
15.1%
|
10.8%
|
4.3
|
15.1
|
10.8
|
4.3
|
5.3%
|
9.8
|
5.3
|
9.8
|
|
Kuntaur
|
13.7%
|
9.2%
|
4.5
|
28.8
|
20.0
|
8.8
|
5.8%
|
7.9
|
11.1
|
17.7
|
|
Janjan
bureh
|
13.4%
|
11.3%
|
2.3
|
42.2
|
31.3
|
10.9
|
7.9%
|
5.5
|
19.0
|
23.7
|
|
Kerewan
|
21.1%
|
20.0%
|
1.1
|
63.3
|
51.3
|
12
|
12.7%
|
8.4
|
31.7
|
31.6
|
|
Basse
|
19.4%
|
18.4%
|
1.0
|
82.7
|
69.7
|
13
|
13.4%
|
6.0
|
45.1
|
37.6
|
|
Brikama
|
16.5%
|
17.6%
|
1.1
|
99.2
|
87.3
|
11.9
|
28.6%
|
12.1
|
73.7
|
25.5
|
|
Kanifing
|
0.7%
|
3.9%
|
3.2
|
99.9
|
91.2
|
8.7
|
23.7%
|
23.0
|
97.4
|
2.5
|
|
Banjul
|
0.1%
|
8.8%
|
8.7
|
100
|
100
|
0
|
2.6%
|
2.5
|
100
|
0
|
∑|x-ya|
= 26.2
∑|x-yb| = 75.2
CI=1/2∑|x-ya|
CI = 1/2∑|x-yb|
=
13.1 =
37.6
ABSTRACT
The
stresses of climate change and explosive state of demographic transition in
developing countries like the Gambia have led to the transformation of their
economic activities which initiated redistributive tendencies in their
spatial patterns of employment opportunities. As a result, the spatial
distributional pattern of population in these countries is also undergoing
changes. Analysis of these changes is useful for administrative and socio
economic planning in addressing issues like determining the electoral
constituencies, the provision of education, health and other social
facilities, waste disposal and
management, and more importantly for devising coping strategies for the adverse
effects of climate change on fragile ecosystems and vulnerable groups. It is in
this context that this paper looks at the changes that have taken place in the
distribution of Gambia’s population from 1963 to 2003 based on data of the four
censuses conducted during the period. Although the first country wide census in
The Gambia took place as early as 1881, it was from 1963 that censuses of good
quality have been conducted on defacto basis. Therefore, 1963 census data serve
as the reference point for analysis of the Gambia’s population characteristics.
KEY WORDS: The Gambia, spatial, distributional pattern, change,
analysis, census, data
INTRODUCTION
One of the most important uses of the population census
data is the information it provides about the population settlement pattern in
a geographic area. It is pertinent, therefore, to examine the changes in the pattern of
spatial distribution of the Gambia’s population as revealed by the data of the
four censuses that took place from 1963 to 2003 using the administrative region
of a local government area (LGA) as the unit of analysis.
The concept of
distribution of a population refers to the spatial pattern in which the
population finds its location. Thus, the concern of spatial distribution is the
pattern of spread which may be linear, dispersed, nucleated, or agglomerated
among others. There are several methods of describing the spatial distribution
of a population; among them the percentage distribution is the simplest which
indicates the percentage of a population in a given class of geographical area.
The other simple method is the rank order in which the geographical areas of a
given class are listed in a rank for a census year to enable comparison between
different census years in order to reveal the trend of population growth
overtime. Besides, the median point, the mean point (the centre of population),
the point of minimum aggregate travel, and the point of maximum population
potential are used by population geographers to measure population
distribution. However, in this analysis the simple methods of percentage
distribution and rank order are used to examine the change in the Gambia’s
population distribution from 1963 to 2003. Besides, Lorenz curve is used to
compare the country’s population distribution pattern for 1963 and 2003.
Physical Features and
Administrative Divisions
Situated between
latitude 13⁰N and
14⁰N, and between
longitude 14⁰W and 17⁰W on the bulge of the western coast of Africa along the
Atlantic Ocean, with a total area of 11, 420 km2 and occupying a
land area of 10, 690km2 (Jaiteh & Saho, 2006), the Gambia is the
smallest country on mainland Africa. The country is surrounded by Senegal, its
only neighbor, on all sides except the west which opens into the Atlantic Ocean.
The climate of the
country is conditioned by its tropical latitude and the seasonal migration of
the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) – the line of low pressure at which
the hot dry continental wind from the northeast meets the moist oceanic southwest
wind to produce precipitation. Hence, the climate is characterized by a
distinct dry season between November and May when the position of the ITCZ
shifts towards the coast and the northeast trade winds, locally referred to as
Harmattan, became dominant; and a wet season from June to October when the low
pressure centre migrates to the interior thereby bringing the area under the
influence of the southwest monsoons from the Atlantic. The influence of the
Cool Canary Currents in this part of the Atlantic modified the coastal climate
to a sub – tropical type which makes the climate of the area more conducive
than the interior of the country which has a typical tropical climate of the
Sudanic type.
Map 1: Elevation
Map of the Gambia Adapted From Jaiteh & Sarr 2011
The River Gambia, after
which the country is named, dominates the topography (see map 1) as it flows
through the entire length of the country in east – west direction and its
floodplains which are flanked by low laterite hills form the width of the
country which is about 48km along the coast and 24km in the interior. Hence,
the country is generally flat with more than 48% of the total land area below
20metres in elevation (Jaiteh & Saho, 2006). The river is politically
significant too as its tributaries, locally known as bolongs, form the natural
boundaries of most of the countries administrative regions.
The Gambia is divided
into eight local administrative divisions which are designated as Local
Government Areas (LGAs) and they form the basic unit of analysis for this paper
because the country’s census data are aggregated according to this geographic
class of LGA. The eight Local Government Areas comprise the city of Banjul (the
seat of Government), the Kanifing Municipality, and the six local government areas
of Brikama, Mansa Konko, Kerewan, Kuntaur, Janjangbureh and Basse. Each of
these local government areas corresponds with an administrative region except
for Janjangbureh and Kuntaur which jointly formed the Central River Region. The
LGAs of Brikama, Mansa Konko, Kerewan, and Basse correspond with the West Coast
Region, Lower River Region, North Bank Region and Upper River Region
respectively.
Changes
in Population Distribution by Census Year
Since
1963 census data is the bench mark for the study of this paper, it is important
to analyse the pattern of distribution of the Gambia’s population in 1963 with
respect to the land area.
Table 1: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area
(LGA) in 1963
|
Local Government Area (LGA)
|
Land Area (sq. km)
|
% of Total Land Area
|
Population in 1963
|
% of Total Population
|
Population Density Persons/km2
|
|
Banjul
|
12
|
0.1%
|
27 809
|
8.8%
|
2317
|
|
Kanifing
|
76
|
0.7%
|
12 208
|
3.9%
|
161
|
|
Brikama
|
1 764
|
16.5%
|
55 393
|
17.6%
|
31
|
|
Mansa Konko
|
1 618
|
15.1%
|
34 227
|
10.8%
|
21
|
|
Kerewan
|
2 255
|
21.1%
|
63 045
|
20.0%
|
28
|
|
Kuntaur
|
1 467
|
13.7%
|
29 003
|
9.2%
|
20
|
|
Janjanbureh
|
1 428
|
13.4%
|
35 752
|
11.3%
|
25
|
|
Basse
|
2 070
|
19.4%
|
58 049
|
18.4%
|
28
|
|
The Gambia
|
10 690
|
100%
|
315 486
|
100%
|
30
|
Sources: GoTG 1996, and
Jaiteh & Saho 2006
The Gambia, as revealed
by Table 1, had a total population of 315, 486 people in 1963. From among the
various Local Government Areas, Kerewan was the most populated accounting for
20.0% of the Gambia’s total population in 1963; and Kanifing was the least
populated, with only 3.9% of the country’s total population as shown in both
Table 1 and Figure 1.
Figure 1: LGAs by
Area and Population Size - 1963
Comparing the size of
each LGA as a percentage of the total land area of The Gambia with its total
population as a percentage of The Gambia’s 1963 population, as shown in figure
1, revealed a fairly even distribution. For instance, Kerewan Local Government
Area accounted for 21.1% of the total land area and 20.0% of the total
population. Similarly Basse LGA with 19.4% of the total land area accounted for
18.4% of the total population; and Brikama LGA with 16.5% of the total land
area accounted for 17.6% of the 1963 total population. The pattern is not markedly
different for Janjanbureh LGA with 13.4% of the total land area accounting for
11.3% of the total population. On the other hand, the LGAs of Mansa Konko and
Kuntaur had significant differences between their sizes of land area (15.1% and
13.7%) and proportion of total population (10.8% and 9.2% respectively). The
same is true for the LGAs of Banjul and Kanifing which accounted for larger
proportion of population (8.8% and 3.9%) than land area (0.1% and 0.7%). It is
intriguing to observe that the LGAs of Banjul, Kanifing and Brikama accounted
for larger percentage of population than area whereas the remaining LGAs had
larger percentage of area than population.
As shown in both Table
1 and Figure 1, the most populous LGA in 1963 was Kerewan, Followed by Basse,
then Brikama, Janjanbureh, Mansa Konko, Kuntaur, Banjul and Kanifing. This
matched fairly well with the ranking of LGAs according to size which has
Kerewan as the largest, followed by Basse, then Brikama, Mansa Konko, Kuntaur,
Janjanbureh, Kanifing and Banjul.
Since the Local
Government Areas have very large differences in their areal extent, the density
which deals with the ratio between the size of population and the area portrays
a better picture of the population – resource relationship. The density of
population is usually computed as population per square kilometer (km2)
of land area. Different types of densities like arithmetic, physiological or
nutritional, agricultural, and economic, are devised for utilization in
different situations with the aim to arrive at a better indicator for the
population resource relationship. In this paper the analysis of density is
confined to the simple arithmetic density which refers to the ratio of
population of a given geographical unit to the area occupied by that unit.
As is evident from Table 1, in 1963 the Gambia
had an average density of 30 persons per km2, the sharp differences
between LGAs like Banjul (2,317 persons/km2) and Kuntaur (20
persons/km2) notwithstanding. From among the various LGAs, Banjul
(2,317 persons/km2), Kanifing (161 persons/km2), and
Brikama (31 persons/km2) had densities more than the national
average. The remaining LGAs like Kerewan (28 persons/km2), Basse (28
persons/km2), Janjanbureh (25 persons/km2), Mansa
Konko (21 persons/km2), and Kuntaur (20 persons/km2)
had densities below the national average of 30 persons/km2. It is
interesting to note that the densities for the large LGAs of Kerewan, Basse and Brikama were very close to the
national average.
Table 2: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area
(LGA) in 1973
|
Local Government Area (LGA)
|
Land Area (sq. km)
|
Population in 1963
|
Population in 1973
|
Decadal % Increase
|
% of 1973 Total Population
|
Population Density (Persons/km2)
|
|
Banjul
|
12
|
27 809
|
39 179
|
41%
|
7.9%
|
3265
|
|
Kanifing
|
76
|
12 208
|
39 404
|
223%
|
8.0%
|
518
|
|
Brikama
|
1 764
|
55 393
|
91 013
|
64%
|
18.4%
|
52
|
|
Mansa Konko
|
1 618
|
34 227
|
42 447
|
24%
|
8.6%
|
26
|
|
Kerewan
|
2 255
|
63 045
|
93 388
|
48%
|
18.9%
|
41
|
|
Kuntaur
|
1 467
|
29 003
|
47 669
|
64%
|
9.7%
|
32
|
|
Janjanbureh
|
1 428
|
35 752
|
54 232
|
52%
|
11.0%
|
38
|
|
Basse
|
2 070
|
58 049
|
86 167
|
48%
|
17.5%
|
42
|
|
The Gambia
|
10 690
|
315 486
|
493 499
|
56%
|
100%
|
46
|
Sources: GoTG 1996, and
Jaiteh & Saho 2006
According to table 2,
the 1973 census revealed a 56% increase in the Gambia’s total population from
315, 486 people in 1963 to 493, 499 in 1973. It implied an addition of 178, 013
people within a decade. From among the various LGAs, as shown in figures 2
& 3, Kanifing recorded the highest increase in its share of population
which had more than tripled from 12, 208 to 39, 404 people. It registered a
whopping 223% increment in its population during the 1963 – 1973 inter census
period. Consequently, its share of the total population more than doubled from
3.9% in 1963 to 8.0% in 1973. Next in line were Brikama and Kuntaur LGAs. The
population of Brikama LGA rose from 55, 393 people to 91, 013 registering 64%
increment in the inter census period. Similarly, Kuntaur Local Government
Area’s population had increased by 64% from 29, 003 to 47, 669 people.
Figure 2: LGAs by Population
Size, 1963 & 1973
In contrast, the population of Mansa Konko
increased marginally from 34, 227 in 1963 to 42, 447 in 1973; and so, it
registered only 24% increment during the inter census period. Hence, the LGA recorded
a decline in its share of total population from 10.8% to 8.6%. Mansa Konko was
followed by Banjul which recorded 41% increment from 27, 809 to 39, 179 people
thereby becoming the least populated LGA in 1973, replacing Kanifing. The other
LGAs with growth rates below the national average of 56% were Kerewan, the
population of which grew from 63, 045 to 93, 388 people and it recorded 48%
increment, Basse also recorded 48% increment as its population rose from 58,
049 to 86, 167 people. Janjanbureh’s population grew from 35, 752 to 54 232 persons
and it registered 52% increment.
Figure 3: LGAs Population as Percentage of 1963 & 1973 Population
The 1973
census revealed a decrease in the share of population of all the LGAs except
for Kanifing, Brikama and Kuntaur. Thus, the rank order of the LGAs according
to population got slightly modified with Brikama replacing Basse as the second
most populated LGA after Kerewan. Similarly Kuntaur replaced Mansa Konko as the
fifth most populated LGA and Banjul was relegated to the bottom replacing
Kanifing which took over its position as the seventh most populated LGA.
The Gambia in the decade 1963 – 73 had registered
an increase of 16 persons in the average density of her population from 30 /km2 to 46 /km2.
Among the various LGAs, Banjul had maintained its distinction of having the
highest density of population (3, 265). It was followed by Kanifing which had
more than tripled its density from 161 to 518. Brikama with a density of 52
persons/km2 followed Kanifing. At the other end of the scale was
Mansa Konko (26) which replaced Kuntaur as the LGA with the lowest density in
the country. It was followed by Kuntaur (32), Janjanbureh (38), Kerewan (41) and
Basse (42).
Table 3: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area
(LGA) in 1983
|
Local Government Area (LGA)
|
Land Area (sq. km)
|
Population in 1973
|
Population in 1983
|
Decadal % Increase
|
% of 1983 Total Population
|
Population Density (Persons/km2)
|
|
Banjul
|
12
|
39 179
|
44 188
|
13%
|
6.4%
|
3682
|
|
Kanifing
|
76
|
39 404
|
101 504
|
158%
|
14.8%
|
1336
|
|
Brikama
|
1 764
|
91 013
|
137 245
|
51%
|
20.0%
|
78
|
|
Mansa Konko
|
1 618
|
42 447
|
55 263
|
30%
|
8.0%
|
34
|
|
Kerewan
|
2 255
|
93 388
|
112 225
|
20%
|
16.3%
|
50
|
|
Kuntaur
|
1 467
|
47 669
|
57 594
|
21%
|
8.4%
|
39
|
|
Janjanbureh
|
1 428
|
54 232
|
68 410
|
26%
|
9.9%
|
48
|
|
Basse
|
2 070
|
86 167
|
111 388
|
29%
|
16.2%
|
54
|
|
The Gambia
|
10 690
|
493 499
|
687 817
|
39%
|
100%
|
64
|
Sources: GoTG 1996, and
Jaiteh & Saho 2006
According to the 1983
census, as shown in table 3, the Gambia’s population grew from 493, 499 people
in 1973 to 687, 817 in 1983 revealing a 39% increase which was lower than the
1963 – 73 inter decadal increment of 56%. However, in absolute terms, it
indicated an addition of 194, 318 people within the decade which was more than
the178, 013 people added in the previous decade.
Figure 4: LGAs by Population
Size, 1973 & 1983
From among the LGAs, as
shown in figure 4, only Kanifing and Brikama recorded growth rates higher than
the national average of 39%. Kanifing had maintained its distinction of having
the highest growth rate of 158% by more than doubling its population from 39,
404 in 1973 to 101, 504 people in 1983. Hence, it increased its share of the
total population from 8.0% in 1973 to 14.6% in 1983 as shown in figure 5; which
made it the fourth largest populated LGA for that census year. Brikama also
maintained its position as the second fastest growing LGA with a growth rate of
51% from 91, 013 in 1973 to 137, 245 people in 1983. Consequently, it became
the most populous LGA in 1983 accounting for 20% of the country’s total
population.
Figure 5: LGAs Population as Percentage of 1973 & 1983 Population
From among the LGAs
with growth rates less than the national average of 39% during the decade,
Banjul registered the lowest growth rate of 13% in 1983 followed by Kerewan
(20%), Kuntaur (21%), Janjanbureh (26%), Basse (29%) and Mansa Konko (30%) in
that order.
The trend of change
observed in 1983 was similar to that of 1973, except that Kuntaur had joined
the LGAs with growth rates lower than the national average of 39%. That made
Kanifing and Brikama to be the only LGAs with growth rates more than the
national average. As a result, the rank order of the LGAs according to
population size got modified with Brikama replacing Kerewan as the most
populous which followed in second place, then Basse (which closely followed
Kerewan), Kanifing (which moved up from seventh position), Janjanbureh,
Kuntaur, Mansa Konko and Banjul.
The 1983 census
revealed an average density of 64 persons per km2 for the country,
implying an addition of 17 people to the country’s density of 47 in 1973, which
was almost the same as the number added in the previous decade. From among the
LGAs Banjul maintained the highest with a density of 3, 682 persons per km2
followed by Kanifing which had more than doubled its density from 518
persons per km2 in 1973 to 1, 336 persons per km2 in 1983.
Brikama followed with a density of 78, for the LG As with densities more than
the national average of 64. For the LGAs with densities less than the national
average, Mansa Konko maintained the lowest position with 34 persons per km2,
followed by Kuntaur (39), Janjanbureh (48), Kerewan (50) and Basse (54) in that
order.
Table 4: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area
(LGA) in 1993
|
Local
Government Area (LGA)
|
Land Area
(sq. km)
|
Population
in 1983
|
Population
in 1993
|
Decadal %
Increase
|
% of
Total Population
|
Population
Density (Persons/km2)
|
|
Banjul
|
12
|
44 188
|
42 326
|
-4%
|
4.1%
|
3527
|
|
Kanifing
|
76
|
101 504
|
228 214
|
125%
|
22.0%
|
3003
|
|
Brikama
|
1 764
|
137 245
|
234 917
|
71%
|
22.6%
|
133
|
|
Mansa
Konko
|
1 618
|
55 263
|
65 146
|
17.9%
|
6.3%
|
40
|
|
Kerewan
|
2 255
|
112 225
|
156 462
|
39.4%
|
15.1%
|
69
|
|
Kuntaur
|
1 467
|
57 594
|
67 774
|
17.7%
|
6.5%
|
46
|
|
Janjanbureh
|
1 428
|
68 410
|
88 247
|
29%
|
8.5%
|
62
|
|
Basse
|
2 070
|
111 388
|
155 059
|
39.2%
|
14.9%
|
75
|
|
The
Gambia
|
10 690
|
687 817
|
1 038 145
|
51%
|
100%
|
97
|
Sources: GoTG 1996, and
Jaiteh & Saho 2006
The 1993 census, as
shown in Table 4, revealed that the Gambia had a population of 1, 038, 145
people and it registered 51% growth rate during the inter census period. It
pointed out an addition of 350, 328 people to the country’s population within a
decade; a number which was more than the Gambia’s 1963 total population of 315,
486 people and almost doubled the 178, 013 persons added in the decade before.
Figure 6: LGAs by Population
Size, 1983 & 1993
From among the LGAs Kanifing
and Brikama continued to register growth rates higher than the national
average. As shown in table 4 &
figure 6, Kanifing’s population jumped from 101, 504 in 1983 to 228, 214 people
in 1993 registering 125% increment in its population during the decade.
Accordingly, as shown in figure 7, its share of the total population soared
from 14.8% in 1983 to 22.0% in 1993 making it the second most populous LGA in
the country. Characteristically, Brikama followed as the second fastest growing
LGA with a growth rate of 71%. Having increased its population from 137, 245 in
1983 to 234, 917 people in 1993 which
represented 22.6% of the country’s total population for that year, Brikama
continued to be the most populous LGA; although, closely followed by Kanifing
as shown in figure 7.
Figure 7: LGAs Population as Percentage of 1983 & 1993 Population
The rest of the LGAs,
as usual, registered growth rates less than the national average of 51% with
Banjul (which for the first time recorded a negative growth rate of -4%) at the
end of the scale. Banjul was followed by Kuntaur (17.7%), Mansa Konko (17.9%),
Janjangbureh (29%), Basse (39.2%) and Kerewan (39.4%) in that order. Thus, the
trend of change observed in 1993 was identical to that of 1983 as Kanifing
continued to move swiftly up the rank by relegating both Kerewan and Basse to
occupy second position after Brikama. Therefore, Brikama continued to be the
most populous LGA in 1993, closely followed by Kanifing, then Kerewan, Basse,
Janjanbureh, Kuntaur, Mansakonko and Banjul.
The 1993 census
revealed an average density of 97 persons per km2 for Gambia as a
whole, implying an addition of 33 persons to the country’s density of 64 in
1983. Thus, the decade witnessed the
highest increase in the country’s density which almost doubled the 17 people
increment of the previous decade. From among the LGAs, Banjul continued to
maintain having the highest density although its density declined slightly from
3,682 persons per km2 in 1983 to 3,527 persons per km2
in 1993. Banjul was closely followed by Kanifing which has more than
doubled its density from 1,336 persons per km2 in 1983 to 3,003
persons per km2 in 1993. Brikama, as usual, followed Kanifing with a
density of 133 persons per km2 in 1993; up from 78 persons per km2
in 1983 implying an addition of 55 persons to its density. At the other
end of the scale, Mansa Konko added only 6 persons to its density of 34 persons
per km2 in 1983 and thus continued to have the lowest
density of 40 persons per km2 in 1993. Mansa Konko was followed by
Kuntaur with 46, Janjangbureh 62, Kerewan 69, and Basse 75.
Table 5: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area
(LGA) in 2003
|
Local Government Area (LGA)
|
Land Area (sq. km)
|
Population in 1993
|
Population in 2003
|
Decadal % Increase
|
% of Total 2003 Population
|
Population Density (Persons/km2)
|
|
Banjul
|
12
|
42 326
|
35 061
|
-17.2%
|
2.6%
|
2922
|
|
Kanifing
|
76
|
228 214
|
322 735
|
41.4%
|
23.7%
|
4247
|
|
Brikama
|
1 764
|
234 917
|
389 594
|
65.8%
|
28.6%
|
221
|
|
Mansa Konko
|
1 618
|
65 146
|
72 167
|
10.5%
|
5.3%
|
45
|
|
Kerewan
|
2 255
|
156 462
|
172 835
|
10.8%
|
12.7%
|
77
|
|
Kuntaur
|
1 467
|
67 774
|
78 491
|
15.8%
|
5.8%
|
54
|
|
Janjanbureh
|
1 428
|
88 247
|
107 212
|
21.5%
|
7.9%
|
75
|
|
Basse
|
2 070
|
155 059
|
182 586
|
17.8%
|
13.4%
|
88
|
|
The Gambia
|
10 690
|
1 038 145
|
1 360 680
|
31%
|
100%
|
127
|
Source: Jaiteh & Saho
2006
According to the 2003
census, the Gambia's population increased from 1, 038, 145 in 1993 to 1,
360, 680 people as shown in table 5. It indicated an
addition of 322, 535 persons during the inter census period, which was slightly
less than the 350, 328 people added in the previous decade. Thus, the population
grew by 31% making it the lowest decadal growth rate percentagewise for the
period under review.
From among the LGAs, as
usual, it was only Brikama and Kanifing which registered growth rates higher
than the national average of 31%. For the first time, Brikama took over from
Kanifing as the LGA with the highest growth rate by recording 65.8% increment
slightly less than the 71% recorded in the previous decade. Kanifing recorded a
sharp decline in its growth rate from125% in the previous decade to only 41.4%.
As it can be seen in figure 9, Kanifing’s
share of the total population marginally increased from 22.0% in 1993 to
23.7% in 2003, whilst that of Brikama increased from 22.6% in 1993 to 28.6% in 2003.
Figure 8: LGAs by Population
Size, 1993 & 2003
As usual, the remaining
LGAs registered growth rates less than the national average of 31%. Among them
Banjul continued to be at the bottom with a growth rate of negative 17.2%.
Banjul was followed by Kerewan with a growth rate of 10.5%. Mansa Konko
followed with a growth rate of 10.8%; Kuntaur 15.8%; Basse 17.8% and Janjangbureh
21.5% in that order. Hence, Brikama maintained its position as the most
populous LGA and was followed by Kanifing in second place with an increasing
margin. Basse followed in third place by relegating Kerewan to fourth. The
remaining LGAs followed with Janjanbureh in fifth place; Kuntaur, sixth; Mansa
Konko, seventh; and Banjul, eight.
Figure 9: LGAs Population as Percentage of 1993 & 2003 Population
The density of Gambia’s
population also increased by 30 persons from 97 persons per km2 in
1993 to 127 persons per km2 in 2003 which was slightly less than the
33 persons added during the previous decade. At the LGA level, Kanifing
surpassed Banjul as the LGA with the highest population density for the first
time, it added 1,244 people to its density of 3,003 people per km2 in
1993; thus, recording a density of 4,247 people per km2 in 2003.
Banjul followed with a density of 2,922 down from 3,527 in 1993 recording a
reduction of 605 people per km2 in its density. Brikama followed
with a density of 221 persons per km2 recording an addition of 84
persons per km2 to its density during the decade.
Routinely, the rest of
the LGAs recorded increments less than 30 persons per km2. Among
them Mansa Konko (45) was at the end of the scale, it added only 5 persons to
its density of 40 persons per km2 during the decade. Kuntaur (54)
followed Mansa Konko as usual, and then Janjangbureh came after Kuntaur (75), which
was followed by Kerewan (77) and Basse (88).
As shown in map 2, the
Gambia’s population distributional pattern has changed strikingly from 1963 to
2003. In 2003 the Gambia’s population has not only more than quadrupled to 1,
360, 681 in four decades, but has developed such an uneven distribution that
the two Local Government Areas of Brikama with 389, 594 people, and Kanifing
with 322, 735 people accounted for 52.4% of the 2003 total population, although
they jointly occupied only 17.2% of the total land area. This change becomes
more remarkable when 1963 data is referenced as they accounted for only 21.5%
of the country’s population or 67, 601 people. This reveals that the Gambia’s
population is not only characterized by rapid growth, but is increasingly skewed
in its distribution. Factors responsible
for these changes important as they are fall beyond the scope of this paper
which restricts itself to analyzing the changes in the pattern of distribution.
Although
all the remaining LGAs registered a drop in their share of the total population
from 1963 to 2003 as indicated by the histograms in map 2, it was more
outstanding for Banjul and Mansa Konko, which interestingly are the Adjacent
LGAs to Kanifing and Brikama respectively. Banjul’s share of the total population
plummeted from 8.8% in 1963 to 2.6% in 2003, whilst that of Mansa Konko slumped
from 10.8% in 1963 to 5.3% in 2003. Kuntaur, which had increased its share of
the total population from 9.2% in 1963 to 9.7% in 1973 as shown in map 2, also
recorded a significant drop in its proportion of the Gambia’s total population
from 9.2% in 1963 to 5.8% in 2003. Similarly, Kerewan’s proportion of the total
population dropped significantly from 20% in 1963 to 12.7% in 2003. Basse and
Janjanbureh LGAs also recorded a continuous drop in their share of the Gambia’s
total population from 18.4 and 11.3 percentage points in 1963 to 13.4 and 7.9
percentage points in 2003 respectively.
A comparison of
the size of the Local Government Areas as percentage of the Gambia’s total land
area with their population as proportion of the country’s 2003 total population
would revealed the skewed nature of the distributional pattern of the Gambia’s
population. For example, Kerewan being the largest LGA with 21.1% of the
country’s total land area accounted for mere 12.7% of the country’s total
population. Basse, which followed with 19.4% of the
total land area accounted for just 13.4% of the total population. Brikama, the
third largest LGA, with 16.5% of the total land area accounted for 28.6% of the
2003 total population and was the most populous LGA. Mansa Konko with 15.1% of
the total land area was the fourth largest LGA; yet, it accounted for only 5.3%
of the total population. Similarly, Kuntaur, the fifth largest LGA with 13.7%
of land area accounted for mere 5.8% of the total population. Janjanbureh with
13.4% of the total land area was the sixth largest LGA and accounted for 7.9%
of the total population. Kanifing, the seventh largest LGA, with just 0.7% of
the total land area accounted for as much as 23.7% of the total population.
Banjul, the smallest LGA, with only 0.1% of the total land area accounted for
2.6% of the country’s total population in 2003.
Map2:
Distribution of the Gambia's Population by Local Government Area
Analyzing the Changing Pattern of the
Gambia’s Population Distribution Using Lorenz Curve
The Lorenz curve is a
graphic depiction of distribution initially devised to indicate concentrations
of income or wealth, but is now widely used in population geography to measure
population concentrations when information about an area is available for
equivalent areal units like LGAs. It involves plotting cumulative percentages
of population of Local Government Areas against cumulative percentages of the
areas of the LGAs. Units of areas are ranked according to the density of
population in ascending order and then populations and areas of these units are
totalled to give cumulative percentages of area and population as seen in table
6. The cumulative percentages of population are then plotted against the
cumulative percentages of area and the points are joined together to form a
‘curve’ as seen in figure 10. If the curve follows a diagonal, it would
indicate an even distribution of population; that means each Local Government
Area contains a proportion of the Gambia’s total population equalled to its
proportion of the country’s total land area. Usually, there is a considerable
departure from this and the greater the curvature the greater the unevenness of
the population distribution. The variation between the Lorenz curve and the
diagonal is called the inequality gap and is equivalent to the index of
concentration referred to as concentration index (CI).
The Concentration Index
(CI) is the deviation of the curve from the diagonal line and it is the
proportion of inequality in the distribution of population in relation to the
area. A concentration index (CI) of zero is the diagonal on the Lorenz
curve. On the contrary, a concentration
index (CI) of hundred indicates perfect concentration, which means that the
entire population is confined in a single geographical unit. For instance, if
the whole population of the Gambia is found in only one of the eight Local
Government Areas, then CI would be equal to 100. Thus, the concentration index
shows the percentage of population that should be redistributed to produce a
perfect balance between the area and population. As shown in table 6, 13.1% of
the Gambia’s population should have been redistributed to attain a perfect
balance between the country’s population and area; whereas in 2003, this number
had almost tripled to 37.6%. The Lorenz curve at figure 10 reveals this fact.
.
The concentration index
(CI) is algebraically expressed as CI=1/2∑ |x-y| and it is equal to the maximum of |X-Y|. In table 6, 1963
population is represented by ya; and 2003 population by yb. Hence, for the year
1963, CI = 1/2∑ |x-ya| = ½(26.2) = 13.1. This
is equal to the maximum of |X-Ya| with the corresponding values of 82.7 for X,
and 69.7 for Ya, see table 6. For the year 2003, CI = 1/2∑
|x-yb| = ½(75.2) = 37.6, which is equal to the maximum of |X-Yb| with the
corresponding values of 82.7 for X, and 45.1 for Yb as shown in table 6.
Table 6: Cumulative
percentage of total land area and cumulative percentages of the total
population for 2003 and 1963
|
Local
Government Area (LGA)
|
% Land
Area
(x)
|
% of
1963
Population
(ya)
|
|x-ya|
|
Cumulative
% Land Area
(X)
|
Cumulative % of 1963 Population
(Ya)
|
|X -Ya|
|
% of 2003
Population
(yb)
|
|x-yb|
|
Cumulative % of 2003 Population
(Yb)
|
|X-Yb|
|
|
The Gambia
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
|
|
|
100%
|
|
|
|
|
Mansa Konko
|
15.1%
|
10.8%
|
4.3
|
15.1
|
10.8
|
4.3
|
5.3%
|
9.8
|
5.3
|
9.8
|
|
Kuntaur
|
13.7%
|
9.2%
|
4.5
|
28.8
|
20.0
|
8.8
|
5.8%
|
7.9
|
11.1
|
17.7
|
|
Janjan
bureh
|
13.4%
|
11.3%
|
2.3
|
42.2
|
31.3
|
10.9
|
7.9%
|
5.5
|
19.0
|
23.7
|
|
Kerewan
|
21.1%
|
20.0%
|
1.1
|
63.3
|
51.3
|
12
|
12.7%
|
8.4
|
31.7
|
31.6
|
|
Basse
|
19.4%
|
18.4%
|
1.0
|
82.7
|
69.7
|
13
|
13.4%
|
6.0
|
45.1
|
37.6
|
|
Brikama
|
16.5%
|
17.6%
|
1.1
|
99.2
|
87.3
|
11.9
|
28.6%
|
12.1
|
73.7
|
25.5
|
|
Kanifing
|
0.7%
|
3.9%
|
3.2
|
99.9
|
91.2
|
8.7
|
23.7%
|
23.0
|
97.4
|
2.5
|
|
Banjul
|
0.1%
|
8.8%
|
8.7
|
100
|
100
|
0
|
2.6%
|
2.5
|
100
|
0
|
∑|x-ya|
= 26.2
∑|x-yb| = 75.2
CI=1/2∑|x-ya|
CI = 1/2∑|x-yb|
=
13.1 =
37.6
CHANGING PATTERN OF GAMBIA’S POPULATION DISTRIBUTION
1963 TO 2003
ABSTRACT
The
stresses of climate change and explosive state of demographic transition in
developing countries like the Gambia have led to the transformation of their
economic activities which initiated redistributive tendencies in their
spatial patterns of employment opportunities. As a result, the spatial
distributional pattern of population in these countries is also undergoing
changes. Analysis of these changes is useful for administrative and socio
economic planning in addressing issues like determining the electoral
constituencies, the provision of education, health and other social
facilities, waste disposal and
management, and more importantly for devising coping strategies for the adverse
effects of climate change on fragile ecosystems and vulnerable groups. It is in
this context that this paper looks at the changes that have taken place in the
distribution of Gambia’s population from 1963 to 2003 based on data of the four
censuses conducted during the period. Although the first country wide census in
The Gambia took place as early as 1881, it was from 1963 that censuses of good
quality have been conducted on defacto basis. Therefore, 1963 census data serve
as the reference point for analysis of the Gambia’s population characteristics.
KEY WORDS: The Gambia, spatial, distributional pattern, change,
analysis, census, data
INTRODUCTION
One of the most important uses of the population census
data is the information it provides about the population settlement pattern in
a geographic area. It is pertinent, therefore, to examine the changes in the pattern of
spatial distribution of the Gambia’s population as revealed by the data of the
four censuses that took place from 1963 to 2003 using the administrative region
of a local government area (LGA) as the unit of analysis.
The concept of
distribution of a population refers to the spatial pattern in which the
population finds its location. Thus, the concern of spatial distribution is the
pattern of spread which may be linear, dispersed, nucleated, or agglomerated
among others. There are several methods of describing the spatial distribution
of a population; among them the percentage distribution is the simplest which
indicates the percentage of a population in a given class of geographical area.
The other simple method is the rank order in which the geographical areas of a
given class are listed in a rank for a census year to enable comparison between
different census years in order to reveal the trend of population growth
overtime. Besides, the median point, the mean point (the centre of population),
the point of minimum aggregate travel, and the point of maximum population
potential are used by population geographers to measure population
distribution. However, in this analysis the simple methods of percentage
distribution and rank order are used to examine the change in the Gambia’s
population distribution from 1963 to 2003. Besides, Lorenz curve is used to
compare the country’s population distribution pattern for 1963 and 2003.
Physical Features and
Administrative Divisions
Situated between
latitude 13⁰N and
14⁰N, and between
longitude 14⁰W and 17⁰W on the bulge of the western coast of Africa along the
Atlantic Ocean, with a total area of 11, 420 km2 and occupying a
land area of 10, 690km2 (Jaiteh & Saho, 2006), the Gambia is the
smallest country on mainland Africa. The country is surrounded by Senegal, its
only neighbor, on all sides except the west which opens into the Atlantic Ocean.
The climate of the
country is conditioned by its tropical latitude and the seasonal migration of
the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) – the line of low pressure at which
the hot dry continental wind from the northeast meets the moist oceanic southwest
wind to produce precipitation. Hence, the climate is characterized by a
distinct dry season between November and May when the position of the ITCZ
shifts towards the coast and the northeast trade winds, locally referred to as
Harmattan, became dominant; and a wet season from June to October when the low
pressure centre migrates to the interior thereby bringing the area under the
influence of the southwest monsoons from the Atlantic. The influence of the
Cool Canary Currents in this part of the Atlantic modified the coastal climate
to a sub – tropical type which makes the climate of the area more conducive
than the interior of the country which has a typical tropical climate of the
Sudanic type.
Map 1: Elevation
Map of the Gambia Adapted From Jaiteh & Sarr 2011
The River Gambia, after
which the country is named, dominates the topography (see map 1) as it flows
through the entire length of the country in east – west direction and its
floodplains which are flanked by low laterite hills form the width of the
country which is about 48km along the coast and 24km in the interior. Hence,
the country is generally flat with more than 48% of the total land area below
20metres in elevation (Jaiteh & Saho, 2006). The river is politically
significant too as its tributaries, locally known as bolongs, form the natural
boundaries of most of the countries administrative regions.
The Gambia is divided
into eight local administrative divisions which are designated as Local
Government Areas (LGAs) and they form the basic unit of analysis for this paper
because the country’s census data are aggregated according to this geographic
class of LGA. The eight Local Government Areas comprise the city of Banjul (the
seat of Government), the Kanifing Municipality, and the six local government areas
of Brikama, Mansa Konko, Kerewan, Kuntaur, Janjangbureh and Basse. Each of
these local government areas corresponds with an administrative region except
for Janjangbureh and Kuntaur which jointly formed the Central River Region. The
LGAs of Brikama, Mansa Konko, Kerewan, and Basse correspond with the West Coast
Region, Lower River Region, North Bank Region and Upper River Region
respectively.
Changes
in Population Distribution by Census Year
Since
1963 census data is the bench mark for the study of this paper, it is important
to analyse the pattern of distribution of the Gambia’s population in 1963 with
respect to the land area.
Table 1: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area
(LGA) in 1963
|
Local Government Area (LGA)
|
Land Area (sq. km)
|
% of Total Land Area
|
Population in 1963
|
% of Total Population
|
Population Density Persons/km2
|
|
Banjul
|
12
|
0.1%
|
27 809
|
8.8%
|
2317
|
|
Kanifing
|
76
|
0.7%
|
12 208
|
3.9%
|
161
|
|
Brikama
|
1 764
|
16.5%
|
55 393
|
17.6%
|
31
|
|
Mansa Konko
|
1 618
|
15.1%
|
34 227
|
10.8%
|
21
|
|
Kerewan
|
2 255
|
21.1%
|
63 045
|
20.0%
|
28
|
|
Kuntaur
|
1 467
|
13.7%
|
29 003
|
9.2%
|
20
|
|
Janjanbureh
|
1 428
|
13.4%
|
35 752
|
11.3%
|
25
|
|
Basse
|
2 070
|
19.4%
|
58 049
|
18.4%
|
28
|
|
The Gambia
|
10 690
|
100%
|
315 486
|
100%
|
30
|
Sources: GoTG 1996, and
Jaiteh & Saho 2006
The Gambia, as revealed
by Table 1, had a total population of 315, 486 people in 1963. From among the
various Local Government Areas, Kerewan was the most populated accounting for
20.0% of the Gambia’s total population in 1963; and Kanifing was the least
populated, with only 3.9% of the country’s total population as shown in both
Table 1 and Figure 1.
Figure 1: LGAs by
Area and Population Size - 1963
Comparing the size of
each LGA as a percentage of the total land area of The Gambia with its total
population as a percentage of The Gambia’s 1963 population, as shown in figure
1, revealed a fairly even distribution. For instance, Kerewan Local Government
Area accounted for 21.1% of the total land area and 20.0% of the total
population. Similarly Basse LGA with 19.4% of the total land area accounted for
18.4% of the total population; and Brikama LGA with 16.5% of the total land
area accounted for 17.6% of the 1963 total population. The pattern is not markedly
different for Janjanbureh LGA with 13.4% of the total land area accounting for
11.3% of the total population. On the other hand, the LGAs of Mansa Konko and
Kuntaur had significant differences between their sizes of land area (15.1% and
13.7%) and proportion of total population (10.8% and 9.2% respectively). The
same is true for the LGAs of Banjul and Kanifing which accounted for larger
proportion of population (8.8% and 3.9%) than land area (0.1% and 0.7%). It is
intriguing to observe that the LGAs of Banjul, Kanifing and Brikama accounted
for larger percentage of population than area whereas the remaining LGAs had
larger percentage of area than population.
As shown in both Table
1 and Figure 1, the most populous LGA in 1963 was Kerewan, Followed by Basse,
then Brikama, Janjanbureh, Mansa Konko, Kuntaur, Banjul and Kanifing. This
matched fairly well with the ranking of LGAs according to size which has
Kerewan as the largest, followed by Basse, then Brikama, Mansa Konko, Kuntaur,
Janjanbureh, Kanifing and Banjul.
Since the Local
Government Areas have very large differences in their areal extent, the density
which deals with the ratio between the size of population and the area portrays
a better picture of the population – resource relationship. The density of
population is usually computed as population per square kilometer (km2)
of land area. Different types of densities like arithmetic, physiological or
nutritional, agricultural, and economic, are devised for utilization in
different situations with the aim to arrive at a better indicator for the
population resource relationship. In this paper the analysis of density is
confined to the simple arithmetic density which refers to the ratio of
population of a given geographical unit to the area occupied by that unit.
As is evident from Table 1, in 1963 the Gambia
had an average density of 30 persons per km2, the sharp differences
between LGAs like Banjul (2,317 persons/km2) and Kuntaur (20
persons/km2) notwithstanding. From among the various LGAs, Banjul
(2,317 persons/km2), Kanifing (161 persons/km2), and
Brikama (31 persons/km2) had densities more than the national
average. The remaining LGAs like Kerewan (28 persons/km2), Basse (28
persons/km2), Janjanbureh (25 persons/km2), Mansa
Konko (21 persons/km2), and Kuntaur (20 persons/km2)
had densities below the national average of 30 persons/km2. It is
interesting to note that the densities for the large LGAs of Kerewan, Basse and Brikama were very close to the
national average.
Table 2: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area
(LGA) in 1973
|
Local Government Area (LGA)
|
Land Area (sq. km)
|
Population in 1963
|
Population in 1973
|
Decadal % Increase
|
% of 1973 Total Population
|
Population Density (Persons/km2)
|
|
Banjul
|
12
|
27 809
|
39 179
|
41%
|
7.9%
|
3265
|
|
Kanifing
|
76
|
12 208
|
39 404
|
223%
|
8.0%
|
518
|
|
Brikama
|
1 764
|
55 393
|
91 013
|
64%
|
18.4%
|
52
|
|
Mansa Konko
|
1 618
|
34 227
|
42 447
|
24%
|
8.6%
|
26
|
|
Kerewan
|
2 255
|
63 045
|
93 388
|
48%
|
18.9%
|
41
|
|
Kuntaur
|
1 467
|
29 003
|
47 669
|
64%
|
9.7%
|
32
|
|
Janjanbureh
|
1 428
|
35 752
|
54 232
|
52%
|
11.0%
|
38
|
|
Basse
|
2 070
|
58 049
|
86 167
|
48%
|
17.5%
|
42
|
|
The Gambia
|
10 690
|
315 486
|
493 499
|
56%
|
100%
|
46
|
Sources: GoTG 1996, and
Jaiteh & Saho 2006
According to table 2,
the 1973 census revealed a 56% increase in the Gambia’s total population from
315, 486 people in 1963 to 493, 499 in 1973. It implied an addition of 178, 013
people within a decade. From among the various LGAs, as shown in figures 2
& 3, Kanifing recorded the highest increase in its share of population
which had more than tripled from 12, 208 to 39, 404 people. It registered a
whopping 223% increment in its population during the 1963 – 1973 inter census
period. Consequently, its share of the total population more than doubled from
3.9% in 1963 to 8.0% in 1973. Next in line were Brikama and Kuntaur LGAs. The
population of Brikama LGA rose from 55, 393 people to 91, 013 registering 64%
increment in the inter census period. Similarly, Kuntaur Local Government
Area’s population had increased by 64% from 29, 003 to 47, 669 people.
Figure 2: LGAs by Population
Size, 1963 & 1973
In contrast, the population of Mansa Konko
increased marginally from 34, 227 in 1963 to 42, 447 in 1973; and so, it
registered only 24% increment during the inter census period. Hence, the LGA recorded
a decline in its share of total population from 10.8% to 8.6%. Mansa Konko was
followed by Banjul which recorded 41% increment from 27, 809 to 39, 179 people
thereby becoming the least populated LGA in 1973, replacing Kanifing. The other
LGAs with growth rates below the national average of 56% were Kerewan, the
population of which grew from 63, 045 to 93, 388 people and it recorded 48%
increment, Basse also recorded 48% increment as its population rose from 58,
049 to 86, 167 people. Janjanbureh’s population grew from 35, 752 to 54 232 persons
and it registered 52% increment.
Figure 3: LGAs Population as Percentage of 1963 & 1973 Population
The 1973
census revealed a decrease in the share of population of all the LGAs except
for Kanifing, Brikama and Kuntaur. Thus, the rank order of the LGAs according
to population got slightly modified with Brikama replacing Basse as the second
most populated LGA after Kerewan. Similarly Kuntaur replaced Mansa Konko as the
fifth most populated LGA and Banjul was relegated to the bottom replacing
Kanifing which took over its position as the seventh most populated LGA.
The Gambia in the decade 1963 – 73 had registered
an increase of 16 persons in the average density of her population from 30 /km2 to 46 /km2.
Among the various LGAs, Banjul had maintained its distinction of having the
highest density of population (3, 265). It was followed by Kanifing which had
more than tripled its density from 161 to 518. Brikama with a density of 52
persons/km2 followed Kanifing. At the other end of the scale was
Mansa Konko (26) which replaced Kuntaur as the LGA with the lowest density in
the country. It was followed by Kuntaur (32), Janjanbureh (38), Kerewan (41) and
Basse (42).
Table 3: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area
(LGA) in 1983
|
Local Government Area (LGA)
|
Land Area (sq. km)
|
Population in 1973
|
Population in 1983
|
Decadal % Increase
|
% of 1983 Total Population
|
Population Density (Persons/km2)
|
|
Banjul
|
12
|
39 179
|
44 188
|
13%
|
6.4%
|
3682
|
|
Kanifing
|
76
|
39 404
|
101 504
|
158%
|
14.8%
|
1336
|
|
Brikama
|
1 764
|
91 013
|
137 245
|
51%
|
20.0%
|
78
|
|
Mansa Konko
|
1 618
|
42 447
|
55 263
|
30%
|
8.0%
|
34
|
|
Kerewan
|
2 255
|
93 388
|
112 225
|
20%
|
16.3%
|
50
|
|
Kuntaur
|
1 467
|
47 669
|
57 594
|
21%
|
8.4%
|
39
|
|
Janjanbureh
|
1 428
|
54 232
|
68 410
|
26%
|
9.9%
|
48
|
|
Basse
|
2 070
|
86 167
|
111 388
|
29%
|
16.2%
|
54
|
|
The Gambia
|
10 690
|
493 499
|
687 817
|
39%
|
100%
|
64
|
Sources: GoTG 1996, and
Jaiteh & Saho 2006
According to the 1983
census, as shown in table 3, the Gambia’s population grew from 493, 499 people
in 1973 to 687, 817 in 1983 revealing a 39% increase which was lower than the
1963 – 73 inter decadal increment of 56%. However, in absolute terms, it
indicated an addition of 194, 318 people within the decade which was more than
the178, 013 people added in the previous decade.
Figure 4: LGAs by Population
Size, 1973 & 1983
From among the LGAs, as
shown in figure 4, only Kanifing and Brikama recorded growth rates higher than
the national average of 39%. Kanifing had maintained its distinction of having
the highest growth rate of 158% by more than doubling its population from 39,
404 in 1973 to 101, 504 people in 1983. Hence, it increased its share of the
total population from 8.0% in 1973 to 14.6% in 1983 as shown in figure 5; which
made it the fourth largest populated LGA for that census year. Brikama also
maintained its position as the second fastest growing LGA with a growth rate of
51% from 91, 013 in 1973 to 137, 245 people in 1983. Consequently, it became
the most populous LGA in 1983 accounting for 20% of the country’s total
population.
Figure 5: LGAs Population as Percentage of 1973 & 1983 Population
From among the LGAs
with growth rates less than the national average of 39% during the decade,
Banjul registered the lowest growth rate of 13% in 1983 followed by Kerewan
(20%), Kuntaur (21%), Janjanbureh (26%), Basse (29%) and Mansa Konko (30%) in
that order.
The trend of change
observed in 1983 was similar to that of 1973, except that Kuntaur had joined
the LGAs with growth rates lower than the national average of 39%. That made
Kanifing and Brikama to be the only LGAs with growth rates more than the
national average. As a result, the rank order of the LGAs according to
population size got modified with Brikama replacing Kerewan as the most
populous which followed in second place, then Basse (which closely followed
Kerewan), Kanifing (which moved up from seventh position), Janjanbureh,
Kuntaur, Mansa Konko and Banjul.
The 1983 census
revealed an average density of 64 persons per km2 for the country,
implying an addition of 17 people to the country’s density of 47 in 1973, which
was almost the same as the number added in the previous decade. From among the
LGAs Banjul maintained the highest with a density of 3, 682 persons per km2
followed by Kanifing which had more than doubled its density from 518
persons per km2 in 1973 to 1, 336 persons per km2 in 1983.
Brikama followed with a density of 78, for the LG As with densities more than
the national average of 64. For the LGAs with densities less than the national
average, Mansa Konko maintained the lowest position with 34 persons per km2,
followed by Kuntaur (39), Janjanbureh (48), Kerewan (50) and Basse (54) in that
order.
Table 4: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area
(LGA) in 1993
|
Local
Government Area (LGA)
|
Land Area
(sq. km)
|
Population
in 1983
|
Population
in 1993
|
Decadal %
Increase
|
% of
Total Population
|
Population
Density (Persons/km2)
|
|
Banjul
|
12
|
44 188
|
42 326
|
-4%
|
4.1%
|
3527
|
|
Kanifing
|
76
|
101 504
|
228 214
|
125%
|
22.0%
|
3003
|
|
Brikama
|
1 764
|
137 245
|
234 917
|
71%
|
22.6%
|
133
|
|
Mansa
Konko
|
1 618
|
55 263
|
65 146
|
17.9%
|
6.3%
|
40
|
|
Kerewan
|
2 255
|
112 225
|
156 462
|
39.4%
|
15.1%
|
69
|
|
Kuntaur
|
1 467
|
57 594
|
67 774
|
17.7%
|
6.5%
|
46
|
|
Janjanbureh
|
1 428
|
68 410
|
88 247
|
29%
|
8.5%
|
62
|
|
Basse
|
2 070
|
111 388
|
155 059
|
39.2%
|
14.9%
|
75
|
|
The
Gambia
|
10 690
|
687 817
|
1 038 145
|
51%
|
100%
|
97
|
Sources: GoTG 1996, and
Jaiteh & Saho 2006
The 1993 census, as
shown in Table 4, revealed that the Gambia had a population of 1, 038, 145
people and it registered 51% growth rate during the inter census period. It
pointed out an addition of 350, 328 people to the country’s population within a
decade; a number which was more than the Gambia’s 1963 total population of 315,
486 people and almost doubled the 178, 013 persons added in the decade before.
Figure 6: LGAs by Population
Size, 1983 & 1993
From among the LGAs Kanifing
and Brikama continued to register growth rates higher than the national
average. As shown in table 4 &
figure 6, Kanifing’s population jumped from 101, 504 in 1983 to 228, 214 people
in 1993 registering 125% increment in its population during the decade.
Accordingly, as shown in figure 7, its share of the total population soared
from 14.8% in 1983 to 22.0% in 1993 making it the second most populous LGA in
the country. Characteristically, Brikama followed as the second fastest growing
LGA with a growth rate of 71%. Having increased its population from 137, 245 in
1983 to 234, 917 people in 1993 which
represented 22.6% of the country’s total population for that year, Brikama
continued to be the most populous LGA; although, closely followed by Kanifing
as shown in figure 7.
Figure 7: LGAs Population as Percentage of 1983 & 1993 Population
The rest of the LGAs,
as usual, registered growth rates less than the national average of 51% with
Banjul (which for the first time recorded a negative growth rate of -4%) at the
end of the scale. Banjul was followed by Kuntaur (17.7%), Mansa Konko (17.9%),
Janjangbureh (29%), Basse (39.2%) and Kerewan (39.4%) in that order. Thus, the
trend of change observed in 1993 was identical to that of 1983 as Kanifing
continued to move swiftly up the rank by relegating both Kerewan and Basse to
occupy second position after Brikama. Therefore, Brikama continued to be the
most populous LGA in 1993, closely followed by Kanifing, then Kerewan, Basse,
Janjanbureh, Kuntaur, Mansakonko and Banjul.
The 1993 census
revealed an average density of 97 persons per km2 for Gambia as a
whole, implying an addition of 33 persons to the country’s density of 64 in
1983. Thus, the decade witnessed the
highest increase in the country’s density which almost doubled the 17 people
increment of the previous decade. From among the LGAs, Banjul continued to
maintain having the highest density although its density declined slightly from
3,682 persons per km2 in 1983 to 3,527 persons per km2
in 1993. Banjul was closely followed by Kanifing which has more than
doubled its density from 1,336 persons per km2 in 1983 to 3,003
persons per km2 in 1993. Brikama, as usual, followed Kanifing with a
density of 133 persons per km2 in 1993; up from 78 persons per km2
in 1983 implying an addition of 55 persons to its density. At the other
end of the scale, Mansa Konko added only 6 persons to its density of 34 persons
per km2 in 1983 and thus continued to have the lowest
density of 40 persons per km2 in 1993. Mansa Konko was followed by
Kuntaur with 46, Janjangbureh 62, Kerewan 69, and Basse 75.
Table 5: Area, Population & Density by Local Government Area
(LGA) in 2003
|
Local Government Area (LGA)
|
Land Area (sq. km)
|
Population in 1993
|
Population in 2003
|
Decadal % Increase
|
% of Total 2003 Population
|
Population Density (Persons/km2)
|
|
Banjul
|
12
|
42 326
|
35 061
|
-17.2%
|
2.6%
|
2922
|
|
Kanifing
|
76
|
228 214
|
322 735
|
41.4%
|
23.7%
|
4247
|
|
Brikama
|
1 764
|
234 917
|
389 594
|
65.8%
|
28.6%
|
221
|
|
Mansa Konko
|
1 618
|
65 146
|
72 167
|
10.5%
|
5.3%
|
45
|
|
Kerewan
|
2 255
|
156 462
|
172 835
|
10.8%
|
12.7%
|
77
|
|
Kuntaur
|
1 467
|
67 774
|
78 491
|
15.8%
|
5.8%
|
54
|
|
Janjanbureh
|
1 428
|
88 247
|
107 212
|
21.5%
|
7.9%
|
75
|
|
Basse
|
2 070
|
155 059
|
182 586
|
17.8%
|
13.4%
|
88
|
|
The Gambia
|
10 690
|
1 038 145
|
1 360 680
|
31%
|
100%
|
127
|
Source: Jaiteh & Saho
2006
According to the 2003
census, the Gambia's population increased from 1, 038, 145 in 1993 to 1,
360, 680 people as shown in table 5. It indicated an
addition of 322, 535 persons during the inter census period, which was slightly
less than the 350, 328 people added in the previous decade. Thus, the population
grew by 31% making it the lowest decadal growth rate percentagewise for the
period under review.
From among the LGAs, as
usual, it was only Brikama and Kanifing which registered growth rates higher
than the national average of 31%. For the first time, Brikama took over from
Kanifing as the LGA with the highest growth rate by recording 65.8% increment
slightly less than the 71% recorded in the previous decade. Kanifing recorded a
sharp decline in its growth rate from125% in the previous decade to only 41.4%.
As it can be seen in figure 9, Kanifing’s
share of the total population marginally increased from 22.0% in 1993 to
23.7% in 2003, whilst that of Brikama increased from 22.6% in 1993 to 28.6% in 2003.
Figure 8: LGAs by Population
Size, 1993 & 2003
As usual, the remaining
LGAs registered growth rates less than the national average of 31%. Among them
Banjul continued to be at the bottom with a growth rate of negative 17.2%.
Banjul was followed by Kerewan with a growth rate of 10.5%. Mansa Konko
followed with a growth rate of 10.8%; Kuntaur 15.8%; Basse 17.8% and Janjangbureh
21.5% in that order. Hence, Brikama maintained its position as the most
populous LGA and was followed by Kanifing in second place with an increasing
margin. Basse followed in third place by relegating Kerewan to fourth. The
remaining LGAs followed with Janjanbureh in fifth place; Kuntaur, sixth; Mansa
Konko, seventh; and Banjul, eight.
Figure 9: LGAs Population as Percentage of 1993 & 2003 Population
The density of Gambia’s
population also increased by 30 persons from 97 persons per km2 in
1993 to 127 persons per km2 in 2003 which was slightly less than the
33 persons added during the previous decade. At the LGA level, Kanifing
surpassed Banjul as the LGA with the highest population density for the first
time, it added 1,244 people to its density of 3,003 people per km2 in
1993; thus, recording a density of 4,247 people per km2 in 2003.
Banjul followed with a density of 2,922 down from 3,527 in 1993 recording a
reduction of 605 people per km2 in its density. Brikama followed
with a density of 221 persons per km2 recording an addition of 84
persons per km2 to its density during the decade.
Routinely, the rest of
the LGAs recorded increments less than 30 persons per km2. Among
them Mansa Konko (45) was at the end of the scale, it added only 5 persons to
its density of 40 persons per km2 during the decade. Kuntaur (54)
followed Mansa Konko as usual, and then Janjangbureh came after Kuntaur (75), which
was followed by Kerewan (77) and Basse (88).
As shown in map 2, the
Gambia’s population distributional pattern has changed strikingly from 1963 to
2003. In 2003 the Gambia’s population has not only more than quadrupled to 1,
360, 681 in four decades, but has developed such an uneven distribution that
the two Local Government Areas of Brikama with 389, 594 people, and Kanifing
with 322, 735 people accounted for 52.4% of the 2003 total population, although
they jointly occupied only 17.2% of the total land area. This change becomes
more remarkable when 1963 data is referenced as they accounted for only 21.5%
of the country’s population or 67, 601 people. This reveals that the Gambia’s
population is not only characterized by rapid growth, but is increasingly skewed
in its distribution. Factors responsible
for these changes important as they are fall beyond the scope of this paper
which restricts itself to analyzing the changes in the pattern of distribution.
Although
all the remaining LGAs registered a drop in their share of the total population
from 1963 to 2003 as indicated by the histograms in map 2, it was more
outstanding for Banjul and Mansa Konko, which interestingly are the Adjacent
LGAs to Kanifing and Brikama respectively. Banjul’s share of the total population
plummeted from 8.8% in 1963 to 2.6% in 2003, whilst that of Mansa Konko slumped
from 10.8% in 1963 to 5.3% in 2003. Kuntaur, which had increased its share of
the total population from 9.2% in 1963 to 9.7% in 1973 as shown in map 2, also
recorded a significant drop in its proportion of the Gambia’s total population
from 9.2% in 1963 to 5.8% in 2003. Similarly, Kerewan’s proportion of the total
population dropped significantly from 20% in 1963 to 12.7% in 2003. Basse and
Janjanbureh LGAs also recorded a continuous drop in their share of the Gambia’s
total population from 18.4 and 11.3 percentage points in 1963 to 13.4 and 7.9
percentage points in 2003 respectively.
A comparison of
the size of the Local Government Areas as percentage of the Gambia’s total land
area with their population as proportion of the country’s 2003 total population
would revealed the skewed nature of the distributional pattern of the Gambia’s
population. For example, Kerewan being the largest LGA with 21.1% of the
country’s total land area accounted for mere 12.7% of the country’s total
population. Basse, which followed with 19.4% of the
total land area accounted for just 13.4% of the total population. Brikama, the
third largest LGA, with 16.5% of the total land area accounted for 28.6% of the
2003 total population and was the most populous LGA. Mansa Konko with 15.1% of
the total land area was the fourth largest LGA; yet, it accounted for only 5.3%
of the total population. Similarly, Kuntaur, the fifth largest LGA with 13.7%
of land area accounted for mere 5.8% of the total population. Janjanbureh with
13.4% of the total land area was the sixth largest LGA and accounted for 7.9%
of the total population. Kanifing, the seventh largest LGA, with just 0.7% of
the total land area accounted for as much as 23.7% of the total population.
Banjul, the smallest LGA, with only 0.1% of the total land area accounted for
2.6% of the country’s total population in 2003.
Map2:
Distribution of the Gambia's Population by Local Government Area
Analyzing the Changing Pattern of the
Gambia’s Population Distribution Using Lorenz Curve
The Lorenz curve is a
graphic depiction of distribution initially devised to indicate concentrations
of income or wealth, but is now widely used in population geography to measure
population concentrations when information about an area is available for
equivalent areal units like LGAs. It involves plotting cumulative percentages
of population of Local Government Areas against cumulative percentages of the
areas of the LGAs. Units of areas are ranked according to the density of
population in ascending order and then populations and areas of these units are
totalled to give cumulative percentages of area and population as seen in table
6. The cumulative percentages of population are then plotted against the
cumulative percentages of area and the points are joined together to form a
‘curve’ as seen in figure 10. If the curve follows a diagonal, it would
indicate an even distribution of population; that means each Local Government
Area contains a proportion of the Gambia’s total population equalled to its
proportion of the country’s total land area. Usually, there is a considerable
departure from this and the greater the curvature the greater the unevenness of
the population distribution. The variation between the Lorenz curve and the
diagonal is called the inequality gap and is equivalent to the index of
concentration referred to as concentration index (CI).
The Concentration Index
(CI) is the deviation of the curve from the diagonal line and it is the
proportion of inequality in the distribution of population in relation to the
area. A concentration index (CI) of zero is the diagonal on the Lorenz
curve. On the contrary, a concentration
index (CI) of hundred indicates perfect concentration, which means that the
entire population is confined in a single geographical unit. For instance, if
the whole population of the Gambia is found in only one of the eight Local
Government Areas, then CI would be equal to 100. Thus, the concentration index
shows the percentage of population that should be redistributed to produce a
perfect balance between the area and population. As shown in table 6, 13.1% of
the Gambia’s population should have been redistributed to attain a perfect
balance between the country’s population and area; whereas in 2003, this number
had almost tripled to 37.6%. The Lorenz curve at figure 10 reveals this fact.
.
The concentration index
(CI) is algebraically expressed as CI=1/2∑ |x-y| and it is equal to the maximum of |X-Y|. In table 6, 1963
population is represented by ya; and 2003 population by yb. Hence, for the year
1963, CI = 1/2∑ |x-ya| = ½(26.2) = 13.1. This
is equal to the maximum of |X-Ya| with the corresponding values of 82.7 for X,
and 69.7 for Ya, see table 6. For the year 2003, CI = 1/2∑
|x-yb| = ½(75.2) = 37.6, which is equal to the maximum of |X-Yb| with the
corresponding values of 82.7 for X, and 45.1 for Yb as shown in table 6.
Table 6: Cumulative
percentage of total land area and cumulative percentages of the total
population for 2003 and 1963
|
Local
Government Area (LGA)
|
% Land
Area
(x)
|
% of
1963
Population
(ya)
|
|x-ya|
|
Cumulative
% Land Area
(X)
|
Cumulative % of 1963 Population
(Ya)
|
|X -Ya|
|
% of 2003
Population
(yb)
|
|x-yb|
|
Cumulative % of 2003 Population
(Yb)
|
|X-Yb|
|
|
The Gambia
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
|
|
|
100%
|
|
|
|
|
Mansa Konko
|
15.1%
|
10.8%
|
4.3
|
15.1
|
10.8
|
4.3
|
5.3%
|
9.8
|
5.3
|
9.8
|
|
Kuntaur
|
13.7%
|
9.2%
|
4.5
|
28.8
|
20.0
|
8.8
|
5.8%
|
7.9
|
11.1
|
17.7
|
|
Janjan
bureh
|
13.4%
|
11.3%
|
2.3
|
42.2
|
31.3
|
10.9
|
7.9%
|
5.5
|
19.0
|
23.7
|
|
Kerewan
|
21.1%
|
20.0%
|
1.1
|
63.3
|
51.3
|
12
|
12.7%
|
8.4
|
31.7
|
31.6
|
|
Basse
|
19.4%
|
18.4%
|
1.0
|
82.7
|
69.7
|
13
|
13.4%
|
6.0
|
45.1
|
37.6
|
|
Brikama
|
16.5%
|
17.6%
|
1.1
|
99.2
|
87.3
|
11.9
|
28.6%
|
12.1
|
73.7
|
25.5
|
|
Kanifing
|
0.7%
|
3.9%
|
3.2
|
99.9
|
91.2
|
8.7
|
23.7%
|
23.0
|
97.4
|
2.5
|
|
Banjul
|
0.1%
|
8.8%
|
8.7
|
100
|
100
|
0
|
2.6%
|
2.5
|
100
|
0
|
∑|x-ya|
= 26.2
∑|x-yb| = 75.2
CI=1/2∑|x-ya|
CI = 1/2∑|x-yb|
=
13.1 =
37.6
